A U.S. Attack on North Korea: Could China Retaliate Against Taiwan?

Chinese retaliation against Taiwan amid a U.S. military move on North Korea would be an occasion for Beijing to redress two historical wounds inflicted by Washington in 1950 and again in 1995–6 

As it has in much of 2017, the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear and missile program is likely to haunt Northeast Asia for a good part of 2018. Beyond the immediate issue of Pyongyang’s weapons development is the interlocking nature of the conflict, which under certain circumstances—such as a decision by the United States to use force against North Korea—could spark other contingencies in the Asia Pacific. 

The pivotal actor in all this is China, Pyongyang’s sole benefactor and a rising power in its own right, whose reaction to a U.S.-led war in the Korean Peninsula could determine the future of the entire region. This article does not aim to evaluate the merits, moral or strategic, of taking military action against North Korea to break the logjam. Instead, with the prospects of war seemingly becoming likelier, it looks at the potential repercussions of the Trump administration choosing the military option to resolve the impasse by presenting the problem as the continuation of a conflict, regional in nature, that began when the United States intervened in the Korean War in 1950. 

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New Party Officials Held for Questioning as China-Linked Spy Probe Widens

A handful of individuals from the pro-unification New Party were taken in for questioning in a case that seems to be linked to a spy ring organized by Zhou Hongxu, a Chinese man who was arrested earlier this year 

Investigators today raided the residence of Wang Ping-chung, convener of the pro-unification New Party’s Youth Committee, on suspicions that he may have engaged in activities that compromised national security. 

Armed with a warrant, Taipei investigators seized financial documents and took Wang in for questioning. According to reports, the raid is related to Wang’s possible connections with Zhou Hongxu, a former Chinese student who was detained in March this year on suspicions of recruiting people for a spy ring while enrolled at a university in Taiwan. The Taipei District Court in September sentenced Zhou, who reportedly received his directives from Shanghai, to 14 months in prison for violating the National Security Act. 

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Taiwan’s Democracy Dodges a Bullet

The attempt to unseat Huang Kuo-chang of the New Power Party highlights troubling flaws with Taiwan’s recall laws, which could become a source of instability in the nation’s democratic processes 

A conservative coalition on Saturday failed in its bid to recall New Power Party Chairman Huang Kuo-chang due to his support for marriage equality. 

Initiated by the Greater Taipei Stability Power Alliance, Saturday’s recall attempt in New Taipei City’s 12th electoral district masqueraded as a move to unseat the charismatic Huang for various reasons, among them that he is “arrogant,” a “populist” who doesn’t listen to the people, and that he spends “too much time at the legislature.” Despite their repeated denials, it is an open secret that the Alliance has cooperated closely with conservative Christian Churches in Taiwan and that their principal objective is to unseat legislators who support same-sex marriage. 

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Beijing’s Orwellian View of Taiwan is Getting Dangerous

The often risible comments by Chinese officials about Taiwan are certainly entertaining, but they signal a dangerous malaise within the CCP, one that should not be laughed at 

The rhetoric used by Chinese officials about Taiwan in recent years has attained such levels of stridency that it has become easy to dismiss it as little more than necessary platitudes, humorous outbursts that briefly make international headlines before life returns to its normal course. 

Whether it is a warning over Taiwan collaborating with foreign powers to defend itself or Beijing’s view of the Taiwan independence movement as a small group of bandits, much of what comes out of official channels in China today is downright disconnected from reality. With their regular confabulatory press briefings, An Fengshan and Ma Xiaoguang, spokespersons for the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), have become the Chinese equivalents of regular characters on the Saturday Night Live comedy show. Meanwhile, other officials in China or posted abroad constantly warn of war should Taiwan fail to return the embrace of a jealous and resentful suitor. 

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Analysis: Chinese Envoy to the U.S. Threatens War Over U.S. Navy Port Calls in Taiwan

While it is unlikely the PLA would invade Taiwan in response to the resumption of regular U.S. Navy visits to Taiwan, Taipei and Washington must weigh the advantages of the largely symbolic move against the possible costs 

Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Minister Li Kexin last week told hundreds of people assembled at an embassy event in Washington, D.C., that calls by U.S. Navy vessels at ports in Taiwan would violate China’s “Anti-Secession Law” of 2005 and automatically spark a military response. 

The blunt messaging on U.S. soil was ostensibly in response to the passage, on Nov. 30, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by Congress, which contains language authorizing the U.S. to evaluate the possibility of re-establishing “regular ports of call by the U.S. Navy at Kaohsiung or any other suitable ports in Taiwan” and allowing Taiwanese vessels to make port calls at U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) yards. 

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Why America Should Beware a Resurgent China

The world is witnessing a new, more assertive phase in China’s foreign engagement under President Xi Jinping 

As it makes its presence felt in every corner of the world and posits an alternative to the Western liberal-democratic order that has underpinned international relations since the end of World War II, China is beginning to experience some of the blowback that other global leaders before it have been met with. And judging from the indignant reactions in some Beijing circles, that backlash was not entirely expected. 

With doubts over the future of U.S. global leadership rising and democracies worldwide arguably entering a period of fatigue, we are witnessing a new, more assertive phase in China’s foreign engagement under President Xi Jinping. China has seen an opportunity to displace an old international system that, in its view, is both unfair and which has outlived its usefulness, and it is now flexing its muscles to make this a reality. 

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Making Transitional Justice Work

Institutionalization will be key to ensure the long-term survival of the many agencies that have a role to play in transitional justice, democracy, and human rights protection in Taiwan 

Taiwan took an important step in the consolidation of its democracy with the passing on Dec. 5 of transitional justice legislation that will establish a transitional justice system to address crimes perpetrated by the state during the Martial Law era. 

However, if this milestone is to facilitate its ultimate goal of accountability and reconciliation, it will have to be accompanied by a long-term commitment by the two main political parties — the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) — to institutional reform. Moreover, if transitional justice is simply used to remove symbols of past authoritarianism (e.g., statues of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek or the name of institutions), or if it is seen as a retributive tool to settle old scores with the KMT, then the prospects of this endeavor succeeding will be dim indeed. 

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Lee Ming-che Sentencing a Warning to Others (Analysis)

More than the unfair treatment of a man who did nothing wrong, today’s sentencing is another reminder that China has no intention of playing by international rules. It is also a warning that Beijing has cast a much wider net to silence critics and those, Chinese and not, who propose an alternative system of governance in China

The Yueyang Intermediate People’s Court in Hunan Province today sentenced Taiwanese human rights activist Lee Ming-che to five years’ imprisonment for “subversion of state power” and suspended his political rights for two years, a ruling that Taiwan’s Presidential Office and rights organizations worldwide decried as “unacceptable.”

Lee was arrested in March upon entering China via Macau. After disappearing for several months, he resurfaced in court in Hunan Province in September, where he was accused of collaborating with others in China and on social media to “attack the Chinese government” and promote “Western-style democracy.”

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China Bans Tour Groups to the Vatican and Palau, Two Diplomatic Allies of Taiwan

The new directive by the central government is believed to be aimed at forcing the governments to switch diplomatic relations from Taipei to Beijing. In the Palau case, geopolitics could also be a consideration 

Travel agencies in China received a government directive on Nov. 16 ordering them to cease all tour groups to the Vatican, St. Peter’s Basilica and the Pacific island-nation of Palau, in what appears to be the latest effort to put pressure on official diplomatic allies of Taiwan. 

According to the notice from the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA), travel agencies that continue to promote tours to those destinations will be severely punished. Two travel agencies have reportedly been fined 300,000 yuan (US$45,000) amid inspections launched by government authorities. 

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We Must Push Back Before China Silences Us

Authoritarian China has turned its sights on the intellectuals in the West who are shedding light on what the regime and its proxies are doing to our liberal-democratic way of life. Our institutions must step in to ensure journalists and academics can continue to do their work without fear of legal repercussions 

The pressure that authoritarian China and its proxies abroad have exerted on media organizations and academic institutions in the West, and the corroding impact that such activities have had on freedom of expression, were brought to the public’s attention recently thanks to exposés in countries like Australia and New Zealand. 

Exploiting fears of lost business opportunities in the Chinese market or the drying up of Chinese students, several Western institutions in recent months have broken with proud Western traditions of openness by agreeing to self-censor. Publishers have pulled thousands of journal articles from electronic services in China, or stopped the publication of “controversial” books about Chinese influence. And professors have been reluctant to address, or have downright avoided, topics such as Taiwan, Tibet or the Cultural Revolution in the classroom, for fear of becoming targets of angry Chinese students — or the local Chinese consulate. 

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Municipal Liaison Offices in China: A Dangerous Idea

The mayors of Taipei and New Taipei City are exploring the possibility of setting up liaison offices in China, a plan which if implemented could assist Beijing’s efforts to sideline and discredit central state institutions in Taiwan 

Recently both the New Taipei City Government and the Taipei City Government have announced plans to open liaison offices in China to assist Taiwanese citizens and promote business ties. In the current context, such plans hold many pitfalls and could play into Beijing’s efforts to bypass and discredit central government institutions in Taiwan. 

On Friday, New Taipei City Mayor Eric Chu of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, an independent, told city councillors of their intentions to open liaison offices in China. The announcements prompted a response from the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on Saturday, which emphasized that decisions on initiatives pertaining to cross-Strait relations are the remit of the central government under the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. 

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The Strange Case of Tom Wang, the Taiwanese Who Wants to be a CCP Member

A Taiwan-born pro-unification student who wants to join the Chinese Communist Party may have become the latest tool in Beijing’s united front work against Taiwan 

A Taiwanese PhD student currently enrolled at Peking University in Beijing says he wants to join the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and is now slamming Taiwan’s democracy for threatening to fine him if he does. 

Tom Wang, 39, stated his intention to seek membership in the CCP next year after the two sessions of the 19th CCP party congress, which concluded last week. After Wang, who holds a Master’s Degree from York University in Toronto, Canada, made his announcement — coincidentally first reported in the Beijing-friendly China Times — Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) indicated that the student could be fined between NT$100,000 and NT$500,000 (US$3,315-US$16,575) for violating Article 33 Paragraph 2 of the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. 

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The Recall Attempt Against Huang Kuo-chang: What’s at Stake?

Conservative Christian groups are getting closer to unseating a progressive legislator from the New Power Party due to his support for same-sex marriage. The strategy is part of an evolving global assault against liberal values which finds its roots in the United States 

The Central Election Commission will announce on Oct. 31 whether a recall attempt against New Power Party (NPP) Executive Chairman Huang Kuo-chang initiated by a conservative umbrella organization earlier this year can proceed to a vote. 

The CEC’s decision, which is expected to be rendered on Tuesday, will come after the New Taipei City Election Commission confirmed last week that 26,745 signatures had been collected supporting a recall, thus surpassing the threshold of 10% of eligible voters in the municipality’s 12th electoral district, where Huang was elected, with 51.51% of the vote (80,508 votes), in the January 2016 legislative elections. If deemed valid by the CEC, the recall vote could be held as early as December. 

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War of the Words: Why Xi Jinping's Big Speech Means Little to Taiwan

What matters isn’t so much what Xi said in his marathon speech, but rather what actions his government takes next 

China has the resolve, confidence and ability to quash Taiwanese independence in any form, Chinese president and Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping told a packed audience during his three-and-a-half-hour statement to the Nineteenth National Congress in Beijing. 

In his speech, which mainly focused on building a “modern socialist country,” Xi made a total of four references to the so-called 1992 Consensus, a construct that Beijing has insisted upon as a prerequisite for cross-Strait dialogue. Unlike her predecessor, President Tsai Ing-wen of the Taiwan-centric Democratic Progressive Party has refused to abide by the consensus and its inherent “one China” principle, choosing instead to acknowledge the progress that has been made in cross-Strait relations since the 1990s and to commit to constructive relations with Taiwan’s large neighbor by maintaining the status quo. 

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Taiwan Conspicuously Absent From Peace Event in Montreal

Repressive and authoritarian countries are all featured at an event about peace in Montreal. But Taiwan, one of the rare vibrant democracies in Asia, is snubbed 

A few weeks ago, following a workshop and a series of meetings in Washington, D.C., I flew home to Montreal for a few days of much-needed rest with family and friends. As luck would have it, work tends to hound me wherever I go, and as I sat in the lounge at Reagan National Airport waiting for my Air Canada flight to Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport, immediately across me was Fang Liu, the Chinese secretary general of the Montreal-based International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the global body that, under her watch, has chosen to put politics above aviation safety. 

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Double Ten and the Narcissism of Small Differences in Taiwan

Both Taiwan and the ROC today overlap in the fundamental values and ideas that define society. Rather than bicker over nomenclatural differences and symbols, the two main political camps should emphasize what they have in common. Doing so might in fact be a matter of survival 

Once again this year the Double Ten celebrations on Tuesday sparked off a new round of debate in Taiwan about the significance of National Day (or “National Day”). Many of the entries and exchanges on Facebook, in newspaper columns and on evening talk shows served to exacerbate divisiveness rather than bring people together, as most national day celebrations normally do. 

As always, one camp needed to remind us all that Double Ten isn’t Taiwan’s birthday (it isn’t), while the more adamant among them — often those from afar — felt compelled to refer to whomever attended the celebrations as either stupid/brainwashed (they are not) or sellouts (ditto). 

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Illiberal Forces Push Back in Taiwan

Movements that are driven by a conservative ideology are joining hands to block various progressive efforts by the government in Taiwan. Using threats, violence, disinformation and even democratic instruments, these groups seek to intimidate civilians and elected officials in the pursuit of their objectives 

Violence-prone groups that advocate unification with China, a movement that opposes the Tsai Ing-wen government’s pension reform program and religious organizations that are dead set against the legalization of same-sex marriage (and homosexuality in general) have come together and formed a loose coalition in recent months, using tactics that go against the progressive momentum that has animated Taiwanese society in recent years. 

Though more alliance of convenience than an actual structured organization, the three movements have joined ranks to push back against what many regard as progress, and have had no compunction in resorting to threats and violence to punish, intimidate and silence their ideological opponents. Left unchecked, these activities will contribute to greater social instability and undermine the nation’s democratic institutions. 

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Homage to Catalonia … and Taiwan

We can admire and encourage Catalans as they aspire to build their own country. But the situation there is a false, and potentially dangerous, analogy for Taiwan 

The recent drama in Catalonia after the Spanish constitutional court suspended an independence referendum for the self-governing region of 7.5 million people has reinvigorated the debate in Taiwan on whether the island-nation should hold its own referendum on de jure independence. 

As batons, boots and shields bruised bodies and broke bones in Barcelona, a good number of independentists back in Taiwan saw in a people’s travails a form of bravery and determination that, in their view, has been lacking in their own country. While the world looked on in horror as Spanish shock troops descended on unarmed civilians, Taiwan’s social media were filled with accusations, against their own, of apathy, lack of zeal and flabby patriotism. Catalonia, ebullient with defiance and its people willing to risk injury, stood as a shining symbol of self-determination. It was, many said, an example for Taiwan. 

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China Seeks Vicious Circle of Violence Through United Front Activities in Taiwan

Violent altercations at a concert held at National Taiwan University this past weekend are a powerful reminder that China’s United Front Work activities are intensifying and threaten Taiwan’s way of life 

Organized by the Taipei City and Shanghai municipal governments under a cross-Strait cultural agreement reached in 2010, a propagandistic music festival in Taipei descended into violence on Sunday after protesters disrupted it, prompting a reaction by pro-unification elements. 

The event, “Sing! China: Shanghai-Taipei Music Festival,” (「2017《中國新歌聲》上海‧台北音樂節」) was sponsored by various Shanghai-based cultural groups, some which critics say may be involved in China’s United Front Work (UFW) efforts (the Taipei City Government page listing the organizers and sponsors of the event has since gone down). Organizers and sponsors include the Shanghai City Cross-Strait Cultural Exchange Promotion Association, the Shanghai Cultural Association, Shanghai Canxing Trading Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Voice of Dream Media Co. 

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The United Nations Is Creating a Security Dilemma for Taiwan

Taiwan remains shunned by the UN, which insists on de jure sovereignty for membership and continues to operate under a “One China” policy 

Taiwan and its allies at the United Nations will once again make the case during the UN General Assembly for the meaningful participation of Taiwan within the world body and its specialized agencies. 

The world’s twenty-second largest economy with a population of 23.5 million people, Taiwan is also a spectacular—and rare—example of what a people can accomplish when they peacefully transition from authoritarianism to a liberal-democratic way of life. Over the thirty years since the lifting of martial law, Taiwan has deepened its democracy and now occupies an enviable position as one of the safest, freest and most responsible nations, which the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators project makes amply clear. 

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What Lee Ming-che’s Show Trial Tells Us

More than anything, Beijing is using the Lee case to send a warning to Taiwan and the rest of the world that proposing political alternatives for China, or even criticizing the CCP, can be costly. Whoever or wherever you are 

The “trial” of Taiwanese democracy activist Lee Ming-che, who went missing in China on March 19, opened yesterday at the Yueyang City Intermediate People’s Court, with Lee admitting to various purported crimes against China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). 

Lee, 42, pleaded guilty to “subverting the state” by “spreading articles that maliciously attacked the Communist Party of China, China’s existing system and China’s government” by calling for a multiparty political system. After admitting his “wrongs,” the rights activist said he had been mislead by vicious Taiwanese (and Western) media about China and that his eyes had been opened. Now seeing the real virtues of China, Lee said that after he is released from prison (at this writing no sentence has been given) and allowed to return to Taiwan he would work towards promoting unification. 

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The U.S.-Taiwan Security Relationship in a Time of Transition

New challenges, opportunities and uncertainty in an extremely complex environment 

The 2016 elections of Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, and of Donald J. Trump in the United States have injected new uncertainty in the security environment across the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, an increasingly self-assured Beijing, aided by political developments in China encouraging assertiveness, is creating new tensions in the region, which will create new challenges for Washington and Taipei. 

My analysis, published today on the Brookings Institution's Taiwan-U.S. Quarterly Analysis, continues here.

Taiwan’s Greatest Victory is Not the Medal Count

More than a celebration of sports, the games were a rare opportunity for Taiwan to shine on the world stage. And it did that brilliantly 

The 29th Summer Universiade will conclude this evening with what promises to be an eye-catching ceremony in Taipei, wrapping up 12 days of sports excellence and many high moments for Taiwan, which made the best of this rare occasion to shine on the international stage. 

The host country, Taiwan finished third in the medal count, with 26 gold, 34 silver and 30 bronze, behind Japan and South Korea. The captivating performances by the Taiwanese athletes who competed in the games, with Cheng Chao-tsun setting a new record for Asia in javelin throw, among other feats, brought excitement to levels seldomly seen in Taiwan’s sports sector. 

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The Liberals’ Great Failure on Taiwan: A Response to Edward Luce

It is grand time that liberals recognized that the defense of Taiwan is a worthy liberal enterprise, not a relic of the Cold War that is kept on life support by conservatives 

Since the election of Donald J. Trump in November 2016, a number of books decrying the supposed decline of the West and the retreat from liberal-democratic values have scaled the bestseller lists. One in particular, described by Lawrence Summers as a “penetrating analysis,” makes it clear that the would-be defenders of Western liberal values have got it absolutely wrong when it comes to Taiwan. 

The book in question, The Retreat of Western Liberalism, was written by Edward Luce, the chief U.S. columnist for the Financial Times. Like many purported voices of liberal reason, Luce writes about the existential threat that faces Taiwan in a way that suggests its defense is the remit and consequence of misguided, conservative — and ultimately dangerous — illiberal forces. 

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Interpol Puts China Ahead of Public Safety as Taipei Readies to Host 2017 Universiade

Once again an international institution is allowing China to create a major blind spot in the global surveillance system 

“As national boundaries become increasingly meaningless to criminals, effective and timely police communication across borders is more important than ever before. At INTERPOL, one of our priorities is to enable the world’s police to exchange information securely and rapidly.” 

Thus states the Interpol “I-24/7” global police communications system web page. The key passage — As national boundaries become increasingly meaningless to criminals — deserves repeating, as it is absolutely true that international terrorists, human, arms and drug traffickers, triad members, serial killers and other threats to society do not care about, let alone respect, national boundaries. 

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Thinking Strategically About Taiwan’s Survival

As it faces off against an increasingly assertive China, Taiwan must do everything it can to present a united front that is committed to the maintenance of its democratic institutions 

It is often said about Taiwan that its best asset is its democracy, which acts both as a firewall against authoritarian China’s encroachment and an instrument of soft power to appeal to an oftentimes inattentive international community. More than ever, as Beijing intensifies its efforts to undermine the island-nation’s democratic institutions and public support for them, Taiwanese and their allies must determine the best responses to this challenge and avoid short-sighted policies that can have the inadvertent effect of assisting Beijing. 

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Will China's Disinformation War Destabilize Taiwan?

If you can’t control the message, take that control away from your opponent by making sure the message gets lost 

While analysts continue to pay close attention to the increasingly frequent passages by People’s Liberation Army vessels and aircraft near Taiwan, an equally important development is the ongoing saturation of Taiwan with information to overwhelm the population and create a sense of permanent crisis. 

With every sign suggesting that President Xi Jinping will tighten the screws on Taiwan prior to—and possibly after—the 19th National Congress later this year, we can expect an uptick in PLA operations, including intrusions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and other forms of signalling meant to intimidate Taiwan. These exercises reinforce notions of powerlessness and inevitability, as well as serve to incrementally “normalize” such passages by the PLA by making them routine. 

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China Threatens the Very Essence of Taiwan’s Statehood

China isn’t ready to take Taiwan by force, and its efforts to win over the Taiwanese with economic incentives have failed. Beijing’s next option is to slowly destroy the polity that stands in the way of the real estate it seeks to acquire 

Faced with a obstinate population that refuses to be annexed, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) appears to have run out of options in its quest to unify Taiwan with China. Beijing’s approach to date, an alternating mix of coercion and sweeteners, has not yielded the dividends it was hoping for. In fact, both approaches seem to have had the opposite effect and, along with other factors, have contributed to a deepening identification with Taiwan among the island-nation’s 23.5 million people. Therefore, barring an unlikely break with longstanding trends in Taiwanese society, “peaceful unification” — which is contingent on both sides agreeing on the benefits of such an arrangement — doesn’t seem feasible for the foreseeable future. 

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Fake News at Work: President Tsai ‘Persecutes Religion’ in Taiwan

Temple operators in Taiwan appear to have become the latest targets in a disinformation campaign intended to discredit the administration

A suspected disinformation campaign targeting the Tsai Ing-wen administration appears to have intensified in recent weeks with false reports circulating that the central government is preparing to issue directives to strictly regulate local buddhist and taoist temples across Taiwan and ban the burning of incense. 

According to information that began circulating three weeks ago, which several people in southern parts of Taiwan have received via text messages, the Tsai administration is mulling new regulations which would force temple operators nationwide to obtain permission from a “Department of Religious Affairs” to hold religious gatherings and perform chants at funeral services. Temples would also be ordered to declare their income tax, and the burning of incense would henceforth be banned. Failure to abide by the new rules, it said, would result in prosecution. 

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Brawls in Taiwan’s Legislature: A Blemish, Yes, but Hardly a Way of Life

The unfortunate scenes we have witnessed in recent days are not what parliament is all about, nor are they representative of a cherished institution that ultimately belongs to the people 

Anyone who follows domestic politics in Taiwan will have seen in recent days a series of brawls pitting opposition Kuomintang lawmakers against those from the majority Democratic Progressive Party. Faces have been slapped; necks choked; water sprayed; and pieces of furniture — chairs, desks — sent flying. 

The ferocious behaviour has attracted the attention of international media, which are ever on the lookout for a bit of drama. On 18 July, for example, the BBC ran a piece by its Taiwan correspondent titled “Taiwan’s brawling in parliament is a political way of life,” accompanied by a video clip with text reading “This is the Taiwanese parliament. This is the second fight within a week. The opposition party is known for getting physical to get what they want. If they oppose a piece of legislation, they fight to block it. Literally.” 

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Taiwan Confirms China’s ‘Black Hand’ Behind Anti-Reform Protests

Using ‘content farms’ and other means, Chinese elements are suspected of generating much of the disinformation that has been circulating concerning the Tsai administrations’ pension reform plans. They have also helped mobilize protesters 

Taiwan’s national security apparatus on Monday confirmed that a recent wave of increasingly virulent protests against President Tsai Ing-wen’s pension reform efforts have been influenced by China. 

According to government information, Chinese elements (presumably agencies involved in political warfare) have played a role in mobilizing protesters and spreading disinformation about pension reform via electronic media. Various web sites, as well as the LINE instant communication tool, have been used to disseminate “fake news” about the government’s plans. The national security apparatus has confirmed that the information originated in China. 

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Assertive Great Power or Victim — China Can’t be Both

Hubristic and expansionist China shouldn’t cry foul when its nationals don’t receive a warm reception in countries it has been bullying for years 

Contemporary China has a serious case of split personality. As she flexes her muscles and claims what is “rightfully” hers, China also continues to exhibit a deeply ingrained sense of victimization at the hands of foreign forces and never hesitates to use this trauma whenever she encounters opposition to her ambitions. But at some point China will have to choose: she cannot be both bully and victim at the same time. 

The victim’s reflex is understandable, given the emphasis that Chinese school curricula have placed on the “century of humiliation.” But it also signals a national immaturity and an inability to understand what it may feel like for those who find themselves on the receiving end of China’s newfound assertiveness. 

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President Tsai’s Safety at Risk as Anti-Pension Reform Groups Plot Escalatory Action

Groups with a track record of violence are threatening President Tsai and her entourage with actions that could pose a major health hazard, including the use of pesticide 

The personal safety of President Tsai Ing-wen could be at risk as groups protesting her pension reform program — among them retired police and military personnel and — threaten violence and appear to have infiltrated her security detail.

Twice in recent weeks, protesters knew ahead of time the exact route that President Tsai and her entourage were to take when heading to a public event, raising the possibility of an inside job. 

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The Trump Administration’s First Arms Package for Taiwan: What’s in it?

The latest U.S. arms sale to Taiwan is no game changer, but some of the items approved for transfer suggest greater willingness on Washington’s part to provide counterforce weapons to its Asian ally 

The Donald J. Trump administration last week released its first arms package for Taiwan, ending months of speculation that longstanding military assistance to the democratic island-nation may have been overshadowed by Washington’s attempt to secure Beijing’s assistance on the North Korea issue. 

Although we can’t be certain whether rapprochement with Beijing — an ephemeral affair, it now seems — or institutional drag due to the absence of appointments to key positions in U.S. government was responsible for the delays in announcing an arms package to Taiwan, last week’s notification sends a welcome signal of continuity to Taipei at a time of mounting pressure from China and diplomatic isolation for Taiwan. 

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Death of the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong Sends Warning to the International Community

Most people already knew that ‘one country, two systems’ was a sham, at best a temporary smokescreen meant to facilitate the recuperation of Hong Kong. Now the illusion has been lifted 

The most shocking thing about Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang’s remarks on Friday, to the effect that the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong of 1984 is no longer relevant, isn’t so much Beijing’s dismissing of a binding UN treaty but rather the outrage from around the world by individuals who should have known that China never committed to abiding by the treaty to begin with. 

“Now that Hong Kong has returned to the motherland for 20 years, the Sino-British Joint Declaration, as a historical document, no longer has any realistic meaning,” Lu told a press conference on Friday. 

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The World is Not Abandoning Taiwan

Despite the challenges and diplomatic reversals, Taiwan is in many ways more connected to the international community today than it was during the ‘diplomatic truce’ with China, and its existence as a sovereign state remains secure 

Given the highly publicized loss of two of Taiwan’s official diplomatic allies in December last year and June this year, and the possibility that a few more countries could jump ship in the coming months, it is not unreasonable to conclude that Beijing’s renewed pressure on the international community following Tsai Ing-wen’s election has sparked an irreversible domino-effect of abandonment of the democratic nation-state. But as official allies switch recognition, Taiwan is actively but quietly strengthening unofficial ties with a number of key states. 

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The World Is Deserting Taiwan. How Should the U.S. Respond?

A ChinaFile Conversation between Richard Bernstein, Margaret Lewis and J. Michael Cole 

There are plenty of things the United States could do, and ought to do, to prevent further isolation of Taiwan. Although Washington has no right to tell other sovereign states how to act on what they believe to be in their national (often economic) interest—such as, in Panama’s case, establishing diplomatic relations with China—it could certainly do more to counterbalance Beijing’s efforts to narrow democratic Taiwan’s international space. 

Continues here.

Taiwan Just Lost Panama to China—But It Doesn't (Really) Matter

Absent a working Taiwan strategy, Beijing has ramped up the pressure to isolate Taipei internationally 

Panama on Tuesday severed diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan) and established official ties with the People’s Republic of China, in a move that is as much part of Beijing’s efforts to isolate the democratic island-nation as a logical extension of its global economic policy. 

Not long after President Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez made the announcement, Panamanian foreign minister Isabel Saint Malo de Alvarado, on a visit to Beijing, signed a communiqué establishing Panama’s diplomatic ties with China. “The Government of the Republic of Panama recognizes that only one China exists in the world, the Government of the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government that represents all China, and Taiwan forms an inalienable part of Chinese territory,” the statement said. 

My article, published today in The National Interest, continues here.

Panama Severs Diplomatic Relations with Taiwan, Embraces PRC

After more than a billion dollars in infrastructure investment, port acquisitions and the promise of riches, Panama has decided to sever ties with Taiwan and to embrace the PRC 

Panama last night announced it was establishing diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China, the latest in countries that have decided to sever ties with Taiwan and recognize the PRC. 

President Juan Carlos Varela Rodríguez made the announcement on national networks at 8:00p.m. Panama time. 

According to La Estrella de Panama, in recent years China has become one of the three largest users of the Panama Canal. In May 2016 Landbridge Group (China) purchased Margarita Island Port, Panama’s largest port. As part of the US$900 million deal to control Panama’s Margarita Island Port, Chinese interests have vowed heavy investments to upgrade port facilities and build a deepwater port capable of docking larger ships. Landbridge is also the firm that acquired the Port of Darwin in Australia’s Northern Territory. 

Continues here.

China and the ‘Cold War Mentality’

Beijing has repeatedly accused its critics of having a ‘Cold War mentality.’ But is being a Cold Warrior really something to be ashamed of? Not if we’re fighting for the cause of freedom against expansionist authoritarianism 

It has been a constant refrain among Chinese officials and party-controlled media over the years to accuse whomever opposes China’s expansionist and militaristic ambitions of having a “Cold War mentality.” Rather than shed light on the actual motivations of Beijing’s critics, however, the sobriquet serves little more than as a blanket term to silence and discredit. 

Underlying the accusations is the notion, unrelentingly encouraged by Beijing despite ample evidence to the contrary, that China’s “rise” and emergence as a regional superpower is benevolent, natural, and inevitable. Following that logic, which according to Beijing should not be questioned, any criticism or policy that does not yield to this narrative is invariably proof of containment — the U.S. policy against its Cold War opponent, the Soviet Union — and therefore a Western-led (racist) conspiracy to keep China in a state of subjugation. 

Continues here.

Taiwan, Tell Thyself

It is nearly impossible to find foreign-language books about Taiwan in Taiwanese bookstores. This needs to be fixed, perhaps with incentives from the government 

It’s a complaint that anyone who pays attention to Taiwan has heard time and again over the years: We Taiwanese are isolated, repressed by China, and unfairly ignored by the international community. Although there is absolutely nothing false in that statement, Taiwan’s response to this predicament (the public and the government) has often been far too passive — and this starts here at home. 

From the outset, it is important to establish the fact that isolation is the offspring of ignorance, of the audience not knowing of that which is being isolated in the first place. Through a sustained and globe-spanning propaganda campaign, China has been hard at work broadcasting a narrative that, little by little, has succeeded in casting Taiwan into the shadows. By dint of an unrelenting assault on the very symbols of Taiwanese statehood (flags, diplomatic presence, participation at multilateral events, presence at academic settings and in the media, and so on), China has sought to isolate Taiwan by rendering it nonexistent in the global imagination. 

Continues here.