Wang Dan, activists call for Want Want boycott

Maybe it’s only for his business interests, but Tsai Eng-meng has an uncanny ability to look the other way when it would be inconvenient to acknowledge Beijing’s dark side

One of the top student leaders during the protests at Tiananmen Square in 1989 has called for a boycott of the China Times after the wealthy entrepreneur who owns the publication denied the crackdown by the Chinese military constituted a massacre.

Tsai Eng-meng (蔡衍明, pictured above, standing), chairman and chief executive of the Want Want Group (旺旺集團), which owns the China Times, told the Washington Post in an interview published last Saturday that the crackdown on June 4 was “no massacre.”

Tsai told my friend Andrew Higgins of the Post that he had been struck by footage of the lone protester standing in front of a People’s Liberation Army tank — a now iconic image of the crackdown — and added that the fact that the man was not killed was proof that reports of a massacre were false.

Several hundred unarmed protesters, including students, were brutally killed in the government response to the protests.

“I realized that not that many people could really have died,” Tsai said, echoing Beijing’s propaganda in the weeks after the crackdown, which said the tank incident was proof that the military had acted with humanity against the demonstrators.

Wang Dan (王丹), one of the student leaders at Tiananmen Square who now lives in Taiwan, was among many who reacted angrily to Tsai’s remarks.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here. The Facebook link to the boycott of Want Want Group products.

Taiwan Navy's mine hunting capabilities to receive boost soon

China, whose navy has an estimated 10,000-100,000 naval mines, could use them to impose a sea blockade against Taiwan in time of conflict

Two refurbished mine hunters acquired by Taiwan will commence sea trials next month and are expected to be delivered to the Taiwanese Navy in May or June, British journal Jane’s Defence Weekly reported last week.

The two Osprey-class coastal mine-hunting ships USS Oriole and USS Falcon — both decommissioned from the US navy in June 2006 — were part of the US$6.4 billion arms package notified to US Congress in January 2010 as Excess Defense Articles.

The 895-tonne ships, renamed MHC 1310 Yung Jin and MHC 1311 Yung An, underwent comprehensive hull, machinery and combat management overhaul and upgrades in the US, Jane’s wrote.

At the time of announcement in 2010, the US$105 million deal was expected to include an overhaul of the AN/SQQ-32 sonar.

The ships, whose hulls are made of fiberglass and designed to survive an underwater explosion, use sonar and video equipment to detect moored and undersea mines and a remote-controlled mine detonating device to secure key waterways.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

The DPP versus corporate greed

Beijing co-opted the elite and big business in Hong Kong to create dependence and ensure compliance. With four more years of KMT rule, the same could happen in Taiwan

The jury is still out on which factors were predominant in the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) inability to regain power in Saturday’s election.

Pundits have put forth sundry explanations as to why presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) did not do better, from a failure to allay fears in Taiwan and abroad of the potential impact of a DPP win on stability in the region to “gatekeepers” making it nearly impossible for her to access the information she needed from the intellectuals on her team.

The extent to which those aspects undermined Tsai’s efforts remains unknown and will be better understood in time. What cannot be denied is the impact of big business on the election. This is a serious challenge that the DPP will have to address if it is to regain high office. And that challenge will only become more formidable now that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has been given four more years to further liberalize relations across the Taiwan Strait.

One clear theme that emerged from the elections is that Taiwanese, in general, desire stability. Rather than jump into the unknown by electing Tsai — notwithstanding her efforts to allay those fears — voters showed a preference for continuity and went for the devil they know.

One group, above all, that made the case for continuity, or the “status quo,” was the corporate sector, which resents instability and stands to benefit tremendously from closer ties between Taiwan and China.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Report slams US meddling in presidential election

Ma’s second term is expected to be much more difficult than his first, largely because Beijing will expect him to pay it back for its help in getting him re-elected

The outcome of Saturday’s presidential election led to a “heavy sigh of relief” in Beijing and Washington, and the US did much in the run-up to the elections to boost President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) electoral bid while also hedging against the possibility of a victory by the opposition, a report on the elections said on Sunday.

The possibility of a victory by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on Saturday led to “very poor decision making” on some occasions within US President Barack Obama’s administration and a “reprehensible” attack on DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) via a leak to the Financial Times, at a time when Tsai was visiting Washington to explain her policy position to US officials, the US-Taiwan Business Council said in a report on the elections.

Ma defeated Tsai by a margin of about 800,000 votes on Saturday, defying expectations of a neck-and-neck race.

“With this statement, [Tsai] was greeted with what can only be seen as a slap across the face,” the report said. “This was not only meddling with the Taiwan elections, it was also inhospitable as it relates to Dr Tsai being a guest in the United States.”

“More troubling still, this was a clear effort to telegraph to the Chinese that America doesn’t like the DPP either,” it said. “To marginalize Taiwan’s democracy through ill-planted media stories or disinterest in the bilateral relationship is to invite the Chinese to continue to push back American resolve to stand by Taiwan’s democracy and to ensure that China’s next government doesn’t coerce Taiwan into arrangements that cannot be supported in Taiwan.”

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here. 

Beijing throws cloak over reporting on Taiwan elections

When it comes to democracy in Taiwan, the Chinese government remains as parochial as ever, imposing tight restrictions on the media and Chinese tourists

Beijing authorities ordered Chinese media, Internet portals and Chinese tourists not to comment on yesterday’s presidential election in Taiwan, BBC Monitoring reported on Friday.

The Hong Kong-based Oriental Daily reported that the Central Propaganda Department had ordered Chinese media and Internet portals to rely solely on official media reports and refrain from commenting on the election, the report said. Under the directive, media outlets could only carry reports by Xinhua news agency and China Central Television (CCTV) and were barred from carrying their own commentary on the election, the Oriental Daily quoted several senior Chinese media executives as saying.

Popular Internet portals such as Sina, Sohu and Tencent, which during the electoral campaign had been allowed surprising, if not entirely free, coverage of the election, have now been instructed to “limit” their coverage, the report said.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Chief international observer Murkowski lambasts Paal

Even if he was speaking as a private citizen, as an electoral monitor the former AIT director should have avoided saying anything that can benefit either of the candidates in the election

The head of an international delegation of electoral observers yesterday said remarks by a visiting former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) director concerning today’s presidential election were “inexcusable” and were contrary to US commitments to Taiwan’s democracy.

Frank Murkowski, head of the international delegation for the International Committee for Fair Elections in Taiwan (ICFET), called a press conference after former AIT director Douglas Paal strongly endorsed in a TV interview the so-called “1992 consensus” adopted by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), while calling the “Taiwan consensus” proposed by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) “impractical.”

Paal, who was invited by the KMT-affiliated Prospect Foundation to lead a delegation of monitors, also raised doubts about Tsai’s ability to ensure stability across the Taiwan Strait and insinuated that Washington was apprehensive about a DPP victory in the election.

While describing the democratic process in Taiwan as “orderly” and “energetic,” Murkowski said the past two days had seen the emergence of “surprising activity.”

“I take strong issue with any inference of US policy favoring any candidate or party,” the former US senator told the press conference.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Chinese tourists ‘experience’ democracy, but …

It looks like being outside on election day could be too ‘dangerous’ for Chinese tourists

A couple of reporters from Reuters parachuted to Taiwan to cover tomorrow’s elections had an interesting piece today on Chinese tourists who, according to the headline, have “flocked” to Taiwan to “experience the elections.”

Kudos to the reporters for managing to get some Chinese to comment on democracy, an effort that yielded some very telling — and at times amusing — responses, including the inevitable tai tai dragging her husband away when he tried to share his views with the press (I myself saw months ago a wife slap her husband in public after he’d been handed a pamphlet by a Falun Gong practitioner just outside Taipei 101 in downtown Taipei).

Even more interesting, though, is information a fellow reporter passed on to me yesterday at a media gathering.

After a foreign reporter, perhaps slightly older than me, had shaken hands with Wu’erkaixi and, being introduced, asked the latter where he was from and what he was doing in Taiwan (“I’m from China, and I’m a political refugee,” which then required a hint on our part — “hum, June ‘89” — as the reporter seemed to be drawing a blank), another journalist, also a Canadian, told me he’d learned that a number of Chinese tour groups had been “ordered” to stay in their hotel rooms on election day.

Now, I have been unable to determine whether this directive applies to all Chinese tour groups or only a select few, and I also don’t know if the order comes from the Chinese side or Taiwan’s. One thing is certain: the Taiwanese tour guide who accompanied the group of Chinese walked away when the question was asked, while the ubiquitous Chinese tour guide/communist minder confirmed the directive.

So much for experiencing the elections!

Politicizing electoral monitors

Through no fault of theirs, international observers arrive here facing a credibility handicap, victims of a political system whose impartiality is oftentimes observed in the breach

It is always encouraging to see members of the international community pay attention to Taiwan, whose travails as it navigates the rough seas of its relations with China are often conveniently ignored for the sake of “larger” considerations.

Given the potential ramifications of tomorrow’s presidential elections for regional security and Taipei’s relations with Beijing, it is unsurprising that an army of foreign reporters and academics would be parachuted into Taiwan to observe its rambunctious democracy at work.

Equally welcome is the arrival of international observers who have been invited by local organizations to monitor the elections to ensure that the process is fair and does justice to the sacrifices made by previous generations of Taiwanese who, for decades, did not have the privilege of selecting their leader.

In a highly charged campaign marked by scandals — from the possible falsification of evidence used in allegations against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) to claims that intelligence agencies engaged in illegal surveillance against her — the presence of neutral electoral monitors from abroad could provide a much-needed dose of sobriety to the whole affair. Or it should have.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

China pans Taiwan navy’s new attack boat

The vessel is top-heavy because of its tall superstructure, which raises its ‘center of buoyancy’ and makes it bob around like a cork in high seas. That compromises its ability to go to sea and fight in all weather

The Ministry of National Defense yesterday refused to comment on a report in the Chinese Communist Party-run Guangming Daily saying that the Kuang Hua VI (KH-6, 光華六) fast attack missile boats that have been in service in the Taiwanese navy since 2010 were plagued by deficiencies and were a “fantasy.”

Taiwan commissioned its first squadron of 11 KH-6 radar-evading fast-attack craft, produced by China Shipbuilding Corp, in May 2010. Since then, 20 more of the 170-tonne boats have entered service, the most recent 10 on Dec. 2 last year at Tsuoying Naval Base in Greater Kaohsiung. The 31 boats comprise the navy’s three squadrons, which have been dubbed Hai Chiao (Sea Sharks).

Each boat, which costs about US$12.3 million, comes equipped with four Hsiung Feng II anti-ship missiles with a range of 150km, as well as a 20mm anti-aircraft gun, a 7.62mm machine gun and decoy systems. The KH-6s, which have gradually been replacing the Navy’s Israeli-made Hai Ou (Sea Gull)-class missile patrol boats, are integral to the defense of Taiwan’s waters. Given the narrowness of the Taiwan Strait, the boats would be able to attack targets at naval bases along China’s coast.

[...]

The Guangming Daily on Tuesday claimed that the program was beset with problems and called the Sea Sharks a “fantasy.” At issue, the paper said, was the fact that the guns on the KH-6 needed to be operated manually, which undermined the craft’s “stealth” capability. The article also said the craft was ill-suited for the rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait, pointing to an incident involving a prototype that lost power and became stranded on an outer seawall during Typhoon Jangmi in September 2008. In all, the paper said, those deficiencies imposed “several restrictions” on the boats’ use.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here, with comments by James Holmes and Wendell Minnick. My take on the same story for Jane’s Navy International can be accessed here (subscription required).

A plot against first-time voters?

For generational reasons, young voters tend to support the opposition DPP more than they do the KMT. And it is this group that faces extra hurdles in making it to the voting booth on Jan. 14

As many as 1.8 million Taiwanese, or close to 10 percent of the about 18 million eligible voters,* could cast their ballot for the first time in Saturday’s elections, a number that could be a deciding factor in what has been a neck-and-neck presidential race.

As a young democracy that held its first presidential election in 1996 after nearly half a century of authoritarian rule, the impressive voter turnout in major elections — which this year will once again be above 80 percent — is commendable, and highlights the commitment of Taiwanese to a system that became theirs after years of democratic struggle by their forefathers.

Sadly, it now appears that not all voters are equal.

Last year the Taiwanese government announced that, for the first time in the nation’s history, the presidential and legislative elections would be merged. As a consequence, the presidential election, which historically had been held on March 20, was moved up by more than two months, to January 14.

Although the authorities claimed the measure was adopted to cut expenses on expensive electoral campaigns — and no doubt holding the elections concurrently will achieve this aim — it also leaves some voters at a disadvantage. And this includes young voters.

My article, published today on the University of Nottingham's Ballots & Bullets Web site, continues here.

*The original numbers I gave in my piece were substantially lower than actual figures. I have fixed them here, and am hoping that Ballots & Bullets will be kind enough do so on their site as well. According to the Ministry of the Interior, the size of the population that is expected to reach voting age by election day is 1.8 million, not 760,000 as I originally stated in my article, making it about 10 percent of total voters, not 4.2 percent. If one reads the CEC figures carefully (which I did not), the number 760,000 represents the increase in registered voters from the election in 2008. That said, this figure does not take the mortality rate into account, which means that the number of first-time voters must be higher — the 760,000 plus the replacement for voters who died between 2008 and 2012.

MND closely monitoring Chinese SLBM tests [UPDATED]

After several years of delay, the PLA Navy could now able to launch submarine-based ballistic missiles at a near wartime frequency

The Ministry of National Defense yesterday said it was closely monitoring the situation amid reports that China had test-fired Julang-2 (JL-2, 巨浪-2) submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) before the New Year.

Chinese military bulletin boards recently lit up with reports that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy might have test fired as many as six JL-2 SLBMs near Dalian in Liaoning Province, China. At least two Type 094 Jin-class submarines in China’s Northern Fleet are known to operate out of Xiaopingdao Submarine Base close to Dalian (see satellite imagery below).

China plans to introduce up to five Type 094 second-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) armed with JL-2 missiles. Each Type 094 submarine can carry as many as 12 missiles. The JL-2, designed by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp’s 4th Academy, is a solid-propellant derivative of the Dong Feng 31 (DF-31) intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The JL-2, one of China’s three long-range strategic missiles, has a maximum range estimated at 8,000km and can carry a thermonuclear warhead with a yield ranging from 25 kilotons to 1,000 kilotons, or about 80 times the force of the nuclear device dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

[...]

The state-owned Chinese-language Global Times reported yesterday that a Chinese fisherman in Shandong Province had retrieved cylindrical wreckage from what appeared to be a missile booster, which could provide confirmation of the SLBM test.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here. My coverage for Jane's Defence Weekly can be accessed here (subscription required). NOTE: While MND initially seemed to confirm in comments to the Taipei Times that the missile tests had taken place, it has since claimed that it neither confirms nor denies the reports.

Facing Reality in the Cross-Strait Balance of Power

Rather than enter a plane-for-plane arms race with China, Taiwan must adopt an asymmetrical strategy that involves a focus on offensive weapons and the means to render the cost of war too high for China

For years, defense experts have predicted there would come a time when the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait would shift in Beijing’s favor. That moment has arrived, and barring a catastrophic implosion in China, there is no going back. For more than a decade, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has benefited from substantial increases in annual defense expenditure. What are the implications for Taiwan, and how can Taipei best deal with the great changes brought about by the shift in the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait?

My full paper, presented to the Taiwan Society on Thursday, can be downloaded here. My presentation can be watched here.

Taiwan first international client for AH-64D Apache Longbow [UPDATED]

The announcement confirms that Taiwan will be the first country outside the US to obtain the world's most advanced combat helicopter, whose fire control radar can locate as many as 128 targets within one minute

Taiwan has become the first country to make an international purchase of the Block III Longbow Fire Control Radar (FCR), a powerful target acquisition and prioritization system and a key component of the AH-64D Apache helicopter.

This was made official in a Lockheed Martin Corp press release on Wednesday, which stated that Longbow Limited Liability Co, a joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman Corp, had received a US$181 million contract from the US Army for AH-64D Apache Block III Longbow systems.

According to the press release, the contract includes the first international purchase of the Block III Longbow Fire Control Radar (FCR), for a total of 15 Block III Longbow FCR systems.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

UPDATE: A source close to the defense industry informs me that due to cost considerations, Taiwan has for the time being delayed purchase of the AGM-114L Hellfire missiles included in the October 2008 package. In other words, the fancy FCR capabilities will be essentially useless.

Rumors, scandal and the outcome of Taiwan 2012

In a presidential campaign that can only be described as underwhelming, the scandals have failed to convince voters to change their longstanding political preferences

The campaigns for the January 14 presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan will be remembered mostly for the allegations and counter-allegations made by the main contestants in the race rather than their policy platforms. It would therefore be logical to assume that the headline-grabbing scandals will be determinant factors in voting decision.

They will not. Despite claims, which first emerged in Next Magazine and have since been picked up by international media, that the National Security Council ordered the national security apparatus to spy on President Ma Ying-jeou’s opponents in the election, there is little evidence that such allegations have had any impact on expected voting patterns. This also appears to be the case with repeated allegations that cabinet officials have violated political neutrality by supporting Ma.

The same applies to the charges by Ma’s Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) that Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, illegally profiteered from her role in Yu Chang Biologics Co when she was vice premier. In both cases (there were other, lesser ones), documents have been brought forth that appear to support the claims advanced by the accusers.

My article, published today on the University of Nottingham’s Bullets & Ballots Web site, continues here.

Chinese satellites turn ‘dumb’ bombs into ‘smart’ ones

China has been developing the GPS-based kit since 2003. Now that the Beidou positioning system is operational, the smart bombs have gotten smarter

Fears surrounding the commercial debut of the China’s Beidou (北斗) satellite navigation system last week have centered on the development by the Chinese military in recent years of a bomb kit that can transform “dumb” bombs into “smart” ones.

Chief among them is the Lei Shi-6 (LS-6, 雷石-6) “Thunder Stone” precision-guided glide bomb first unveiled by the Luoyang Optoelectro Technology Development Center in late 2006. The guidance “fit,” which is attached to conventional bombs and has deployable wings, can support a number of bomb weights, from 50kg to 500kg.

Once installed, a “dumb” bomb becomes a “standoff” maneuverable precision-guided bomb similar to the US-developed Joint Attack Direct Munition (JDAM), which relies on US satellites for guidance. Unlike laser-guided weapons, projectiles using satellites for guidance can be used in any weather conditions.

Relying on the navigation capabilities provided by the Beidou satellites, aircraft pilots could limit their exposure to an enemy’s aircraft and air defense system by releasing their smart bomb from a distance. The LS-6 has a range of 40km when dropped at an altitude of 8,000m and 60km at 10,000m, bringing its ordnance at a speed of Mach 1 to within 15m of a target.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

A professional military comes at a cost

Creating an all-volunteer force is a hugely expensive endeavor that requires fundamental changes in training and organization. Getting it wrong could severely undermine national defense

The Ministry of National Defense confirmed on Thursday that it would implement an all-volunteer military system next year and drastically cut down on the military training citizens born after 1993 will have to undergo.

Plans to create a professional military did not begin with the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). Not only did Ma allude to a similar commitment in 2008, but the idea was already being discussed under former President Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government.

Why two administrations that tend to disagree with each other on so many issues have both expressed a desire to create an all-volunteer military is simple: It makes sense — at least on paper.

However, if such a plan were to materialize next year, the legislature would either have to be willing to release extraordinary budgets or substantially increase the annual defense budget. Judging from its performance in the past four years, the Ma administration, even with his Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) enjoying a super-majority in the legislature, has shown no inclination to release such a budget.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Chinese magazine pressured on Taiwan elections

Caijing, one of the rare independent publications in China, appears to have run into the limits of Beijing’s willingness to allow coverage on the election and Taiwan’s democratization

Despite signs the Chinese authorities are allowing unprecedented access to information about next month’s elections in Taiwan, Beijing remains intransigent on certain issues it regards as lines in the sand and it is taking action to ensure that its control remains unchallenged.

A senior editor at Caijing (財經), an independent Beijing-based publication that focuses predominantly on finance and politics, was recently invited by the Lung Yingtai Foundation in Taipei to visit Taiwan for a month to experience the elections, said Bruce Jacobs, a professor of Asian languages and studies at Monash University in Australia and a specialist on Taiwan.

Founded in 2005 by a group of entrepreneurs and intellectuals, the foundation is committed to fostering cultural exchanges, intellectual dialogue and enlivening a positive civic spirit within a democratic framework. The foundation has previously invited Chinese academics and journalists to visit Taiwan on cultural exchanges.

However, the senior editor’s application to visit Taiwan was rejected by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), Jacobs said. Undaunted, the editor, whose identity could not be revealed for this article, decided to travel to Taiwan via Hong Kong. Within 48 hours of his arrival, the TAO had reportedly faxed a document to the magazine’s office asking it to explain what the editor was doing in Taiwan.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Beidou satellites raise fears of threat to Taiwan

With resolution reaching 10 meters next year, the Beidou constellation of orbiters could provide guidance coordinates for a number of military devices, from precision-guided munitions to unmanned vehicles

Defense specialists are warning that China’s Beidou (北斗) satellite-based navigation system, which began providing services on Tuesday, could pose a long-term threat to Taiwan’s security and they are calling for countermeasures.

Xinhua news agency announced on Tuesday that the Beidou (“Compass”) Navigation Satellite System had begun providing initial positioning, navigation and timing services for China and the surrounding areas. Hoping to diminish its reliance on the US’ global positioning systems (GPS), China began work on the Beidou system in 2000.

Ten satellites which form the Beidou “constellation” have been launched since 2007, with six more launches scheduled for next year to provide extended coverage for the Asia-Pacific region. By 2020, the Beidou constellation will comprise 35 satellites.

At present, only the US and Russia, with its Glonass constellation of 24 satellites, have fully operational satellite-based navigation services, with the EU’s Galileo expected to enter full service in 2013. According to an October 2008 article by Jane’s Defence Weekly, China’s involvement in the Galileo project might have benefited the development of the Beidou constellation, especially dual-use technology used by the EU consortium.

Although China claims Beidou will provide commercial services, such as mapping, fishery, transport, meteorology and telecommunications, the system could also be of great assistance to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Taiwan Air Force upgrading ‘Skyguard’ system

One defense analyst has called the upgrade the best development in the nation’s point defenses against precision-guided munitions

Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against Chinese aircraft and missile attacks is expected to receive a shot in the arm following the scheduled completion next year of an upgrade program for its “Skyguard” short-range air defense system.

As part of the three-year, NT$3.08 billion (US$101.6 million) “Tian Wu 7” (天武7) air defense upgrade program launched in 2009, Taiwan’s air force has been converting the GDF-003 Oerlikon 35mm twin cannons that are part of the Skyguard Air Defense System to a GDF-006 configuration, which will use Advanced Hit Efficiency And Destruction (AHEAD) munitions to shoot down manned aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, cruise missiles, air-to-ground missiles and other targets.

Each AHEAD round consists of a shell filled with 152 tungsten pellets with a small programmable charge timed to detonate several meters in front of the target, sending an expanding cone of pellets forward to destroy the incoming projectile.

According to this month’s edition of the Chinese-language Asia-Pacific Defense Magazine, the air force has 24 “Sky Sentinel” radar units and 50 Oerlikon 35mm twin cannons. Each barrel can fire 550 rounds per minute at an altitude of about 4km and within a range of 8.5km.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Ex-AIT director taking fire in Hong Kong

First it was media mogul Jimmy Lai acting as paymaster to the opposition. Now Stephen Young is being accused of trying to create chaos in the territory. All signs that Beijing is nervous about 2012

Former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) director Stephen Young has run into trouble with Chinese authorities in Hong Kong for reportedly ignoring “solemn warnings” to keep quiet about democracy in the territory, the Washington Post reported.

Young, who assumed the position of US consul-general in Hong Kong in March last year, has in recent months faced accusations by Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled media in the territory of being part of a US plot to sow discord in the territory to “keep China down.”

Leading the attacks against Young, the Chinese-language and pro-Beijing Wen Wei Po has said the diplomat comes from “an anti-China, anti-communist family,” adding that “wherever he goes, there is trouble and so-called color revolution.” The paper has also reportedly launched attacks on academics who favor democratic reform in Hong Kong.

The Mandarin-speaking Young was AIT director from March 2006 until July 2009, and US ambassador to Kyrgyzstan from 2003 until 2005, when the former Soviet republic was rocked by a democratic uprising.

The severity of the campaign against Young climbed a notch after Lu Xinhua (呂新華), head of the Hong Kong branch of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, made a personal rebuke during a meeting with reporters in Hong Kong recently.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Bad, bad timing on visa waiver announcement

Both the DPP and the KMT deserve praise for the achievement. But the US timed its announcement in a way that invites exploitation by the KMT ahead of crucial elections

Some great news came Taiwan’s way on Thursday when the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) announced that Taiwan had been put on the candidate list for the US’ visa-waiver program, taking the nation another step closer to sealing the coveted agreement.

However welcome the news may have been, the timing could hardly have been worse, coming as it did a mere three weeks before the closely fought presidential election. Washington’s decision to make the announcement when it did can be explained in two ways: either is it naive and unaware of the political uses that could be made of the news or, despite its professions to the contrary, it is taking sides in Taiwan’s elections. Either way, this does not reflect too well on Washington’s ability to remain neutral in the electoral affairs of a democratic ally.

Reporters had hardly made their way back from the AIT when Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Tung Kuoyu (董國猷) was heard hailing the announcement as reflecting Washington’s high degree of confidence in President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). For his part, KMT Legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方) compared the nomination to a “cardiac stimulant” that gave Ma an advantage over Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in the election.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

First Chinese aircraft carrier could soon embark on third sea trial

Less that two weeks after completing its second sea trial, the Varyag looks set to embark on a third journey at sea

China’s Liaoning Air Police on Monday issued a navigational warning for a zone northwest of the Bohai Sea, east of Dalian, where the country’s first aircraft carrier is berthed, amid reports that the refurbished Soviet-era vessel could soon embark on a third sea trial.

The 60,000 tonne Kuznetsov-class Varyag returned to Dalian Port on Dec. 11 after completing a 13-day sea trial, its second since the carrier was officially unveiled to the world.

Quoting military enthusiasts at Dalian, the reports said the Varyag was docked at the pier and that “faint smoke” was emanating from the vessel, a sign that the engines were running.

[...]

In addition, the life rafts had not been removed and weapons systems were not covered by protective sheeting, reports said. Unnamed sources said landings could be attempted during the third sea trial. No date has been given yet for the operation.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Calm down, no DF-21D’s heading our way

There’s already enough speculation about China’s intentions out there. We don’t need journalistic irresponsibility to amplify the problem

Readers who are feeling a sense of alarm over recent reports in Taiwanese media that China could test-fire a Dong Feng-21D anti-ship missile in the Taiwan Strait prior to the Jan. 14 elections in Taiwan should note that the article in Defense News from which those claims originate was in fact a Nov. 21 op-ed by Roger Cliff, formerly of RAND Corp and now at the Project 2049 Institute. Once again, media here are omitting to mention that very crucial factor in news making — neglect that got me into no small amount of trouble when a certain newspaper failed to mention that when it did a write-up of one of my op-eds in the Wall Street Journal.

Besides the fact that firing a DF-21D (or any missile, for that matter) off Taiwan mere days prior to a key presidential election in Taiwan would be the height of folly on Beijing’s part (one assumes it learned its lesson from the missile crisis of 1995-96), what Cliff does in his op-ed is merely speculative, based on the auspiciousness of one-one-one, added to the fact that China has used Jan. 11 on previous occasions to conduct “surprise” military tests.

There is a very real difference between “hard news” and opinion. Had that distinction been made, no journalist would have asked a Ministry of National Defense spokesman at a press conference today (and in the process, made a fool of himself) to comment on “alleged plans by China to fire a ‘carrier killer’ missile near Taiwan before the elections.”

A tyrant, a dissident and a writer

Three larger-than-life men passed away in the past few days, and each, in his own way, will leave a mark on history

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who for more than 17 years led an autocratic economic system that could only be described as the very antithesis of capitalism, would have taken delight at the irony that stock markets across Asia had dropped following the announcement of his death.

Equally ironic, albeit for different reasons, is that his death occurred within 24 hours of that of another man at the other end of the political spectrum, former Czech president Vaclav Havel, and within 48 hours of that of a staunch opponent of totalitarianism, Christopher Hitchens.

More than the era in which they lived unites the trio, as each played a role in defining our times, and each was an actor on the stage where totalitarianism collided with liberty.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Sale of additional PAC-3 units to Taiwan proceeds

After initial fears that the year-end deadline to sign the LOA would pass, the agreement is finally inked

Raytheon has signed a US$685.7 million Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contract to provide two additional new fire units of the combat-proven Patriot Air and Missile Defense System for Taiwan, the company announced.

In a press release last week, the defense contractor said the fire units would feature new advanced technology, improved man-machine interface and reduced life cycle costs.

In 2008, Raytheon was awarded a contract to upgrade Taiwan’s existing Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) systems, followed by a second one in 2009 for new systems. The first PAC-3 upgraded radar system was delivered to Taiwan earlier this year, 10 months ahead of the original program plan requested by the Taiwanese Air Force.

The new fire units were part of the US$6.4 billion arms package agreed by the administration of US President Barack Obama in January last year.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

US qualms may have nixed Taiwan space launch program

Potential military applications may have prompted Washington to apply pressure on Taiwan not to embark on an indigenous satellite launcher program

US fears that an indigenous satellite launcher capability for Taiwan could help it develop longer-range missiles may have forced Taipei to abandon, or at least delay, the project, sources told the Taipei Times.

After years of relying on foreign space-launch capabilities to lift payloads into space, reports began emerging in 2008 that Taiwan’s National Space Program Office (NSPO) had long-term plans to develop an indigenous satellite and launcher for scientific use.

At the Fourth Asian Space Conference that year, a paper presented by NSPO officials said the agency’s first choice to launch FORMOSAT-6, a micro-satellite under development to carry out scientific investigation, would be the Taiwan Small Launch Vehicle (TSLV).

[...]

A cable from the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) dated April 6, 2009, reported that then-NSPO director-general Miau Jiun-jih (苗君易) had informed the AIT five days earlier that the agency’s long-term plan called for Taiwan to develop an indigenous satellite and launcher and that Taiwan was “very keen for US reaction to that plan.”

The cable said Miau had told the AIT that the TSLV would be locally built in cooperation with CSIST and used to propel locally made satellites weighing between 50kg and 200kg into orbit. A test launch for a 50kg satellite — very likely FORMOSAT-6 — was scheduled for next year to collect data on disaster management and environmental observation.

Based on the lack of progress in developing a TSLV, it appears the US reaction to the plan was negative.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

In memoriam: Christopher Hitchens

Writer, journalist, book lover, renaissance man, Christopher Hitchens passed away yesterday at age 62, after a battle with esophageal cancer

Often controversial, Mr Hitchens never minced his words and would not self-censor for the sake of political correctness. Everybody, and every subject, was fair game, from Henry Kissinger to Mother Theresa. Even religion.

It would be impossible, given his body of work, to agree with everything the man wrote; for me, his apparent volte-face on Iraq following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the US, after years of taking up the Palestinian cause alongside the likes of his friend Edward Said (whom he still does not spare in his memoir, Hitch-22), was one such occasion where we parted ways ideologically (not that he was alone, as another inspiration of mine, Michael Ignatieff, made a similar U-turn).

The occasional disagreement notwithstanding, Mr Hitchens served as a tremendous inspiration on my career as a journalist. The breadth of his knowledge (there isn’t a book he doesn’t seem to have read; his collection of essays, Arguably, makes that pretty clear) and the sheer musicality of his writing soared to such heights as I cannot ever hope to achieve, though both remain, fixed high above, as a reflection of what I aspire to. (Some critics of my writing style, which tends to favor long, complex sentences, should know that Mr Hitchens shares some of the blame. He is also partly to blame for the piles of books that occupy a lot of floor space at my house.) 

Whether one liked or disliked him — and there are plenty in both camps — Mr Hitchens’ departure is a great loss to journalism, literature, and all of us who continually strive to make sense of this complex, mad world of ours.

I wish I could write something better to do the man justice, but this is all I can summon for the moment. Cheers, Mr Hitchens.

Taiwan giving up on US subs, eyeing local plan

MND has reportedly commissioned a local shipbuilder to contract a country other than the US capable of building submarines for cooperation in building conventional subs

Taiwan has all but given up on acquiring diesel-electric submarines from the US and is expected to embark on a domestic program with assistance from abroad, a leading defense analyst told the Taipei Times.

Longstanding plans to augment Taiwan’s small and aging submarine fleet gained momentum in 2001, when the administration of US president George W. Bush offered to provide eight diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan for about US$12 billion.

With efforts going nowhere, in 2003 the Pentagon suggested that Taiwan consider buying refurbished submarines from Italy, and Rome reportedly agreed to sell four Nazario Sauro-class boats and an additional four following their decommissioning by the Italian Navy. However, Taipei rejected the offer, saying it wanted new submarines.

As a result of political wrangling in Taiwan’s legislature, moves by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the US to appease Beijing amid efforts at cross-strait reconciliation, and pressure from China on Washington, Bush’s deal never materialized. [...] The arms package announced to the US Congress by US President Barack Obama in October did not include submarines, or even a feasibility study.

This could be about to change, with a US defense analyst familiar with the Taiwanese military saying he feels positive the navy will move ahead on the submarine program in the not-so-distant future.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Ministry in F-16 upgrade wrangle

The Taiwanese Air Force could save a lot of money if it asked suppliers to bid on the jets’ upgrade, but the Ministry of National Defense seems to have only one supplier in mind

The Ministry of National Defense could be contravening a legislative directive if it does not request that the US government perform an open competition bidding process for suppliers involved in upgrading its fleet of 146 F-16A/Bs.

In a meeting on Oct. 12 attended by legislators from the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Minister of National Defense Kao Hua-chu (高華柱) and a representative from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, the legislature stipulated that to ensure the proper use of government public resources, the ministry’s Letter of Agreement for the upgrade package for the F-16A/Bs “shall not specify any supplier and shall request the US team to perform open competition.”

Despite this directive, the ministry appears to have only one supplier in mind — Lockheed Martin Corp — and does not seem to have asked the US to facilitate competitive bids for avionics and weapons systems integration.

This comes as Lockheed Martin is locked in competition with BAE Systems over a program for avionics upgrades and weapons systems integration for 135 KF-16C/Ds for the South Korean air force (ROKAF) worth about US$1 billion.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

US has not pivoted toward Taiwan

The idea that Washington has shifted its strategy on Taiwan is mere wishful thinking

There has been no shortage of optimism in recent weeks over visits to Taiwan by relatively senior US officials, with some pundits pointing to signs of a shift in US policy that would place greater emphasis on US-Taiwan ties.

The excitement stems from visits by US Deputy Secretary of Energy Daniel Poneman, who arrived yesterday on a three-day visit, and that of US Agency for International Development (USAID) Administrator Rajiv Shah earlier this month. As media have noted, Poneman will be the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan since 2000.

Commenting on the visit on Thursday, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman James Chang (章計平) said this not only proved the solidity of Taiwan-US relations, but also showed that the US was honoring its commitment to send high-ranking officials, words echoed by Edward Chen (陳一新), a US studies specialist at Tamkang University, who told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post: “By sending senior officials to visit Taiwan, the US is assuring us it will not abandon Taiwan.”

However, the fact remains that no Cabinet-level US official has visited Taiwan since the administration of former US president Bill Clinton, making, in some critics’ view, the visits more theater than substance.

My op-ed, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

The KMT is growing desperate

Rather than look to the future, President Ma Ying-jeou’s presidential campaign looks to the past, trying to uncover skeletons that will give it an edge over its opponents — and Chiu Yi is happy to help

There is a general consensus among Taiwan watchers that next month’s presidential election will be pivotal for the country’s future.

Consequently, hopes have been high for presidential campaigns that provide substance on topics such as relations with China, the economy and a number of environmental issues.

Sadly for all involved, the party that from the onset had insisted it would run a “clean” and “responsible” campaign has failed to abide by its commitment and has chosen instead to turn to the past — the distant past, in some cases — as it attempts to tarnish the image of its resurgent opponent.

It is little wonder that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would say over the weekend that President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), having no accomplishments to show for in its nearly four years in office, had chosen instead to launch an all-out attack on her and her party.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Chinese netizens praise democracy

Despite its tight grip on the media, Beijing appears to have adopted a surprisingly open attitute to coverage of and discussions on the presidential election in Taiwan

Interest in Taiwan’s presidential election among Chinese citizens could go well beyond the actions of a man from Xinjiang who paddled from Xiamen, China, to Kinmen last week to “help” with the elections — at least if cyberspace is any indication.

Data mining conducted last week on various Chinese social media platforms seems to indicate great interest in the first presidential debate on Dec. 3 between Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜).

On the Baidu platform alone, more than 880,000 Chinese-language searches for “uncut television debate for the 2012 Taiwan Area leadership election” were recorded, with several variants also producing a high number of returns. Two combinations had more than 1 million searches.

Furthermore, Sina, the Global Times, Xinhua news agency, China Central Television (CCTV), Tencent, Phoenix, Kaidi and many local portals all contained news on the debate, although there were complaints online that some posts and video links had been deleted.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Leaked video shows greater repression in Tibet

The release of video footage and photos showing Tibetans being humiliated in public and taken away by large contingents of Chinese security forces points to a possible whistleblower within the Chinese apparatus

Recently leaked footage of a crackdown by Chinese security forces in Tibet indicates that the level of repression against Tibetans appears to be much more serious than generally acknowledged by the international community.

A video posted on the exile Tibetan Web site TibetOnline.tv on Wednesday showed a raid by a Chinese SWAT team comprising about 100 People’s Armed Police (PAP) officers on what is believed to be Unit 2 of Dode Village, near the Sera monastery northeast of Lhasa.

The quality footage, which is believed to have been shot in 2008, displays an unprecedented show of force by Chinese authorities, with SWAT teams, accompanied by numerous dogs and an armored vehicle, assuming attack formation and aiming assault rifles at sleeping villagers. In all, four confused-looking men and one elderly woman are taken away. Each is forced to stare into the camera and provide details to the cameraman, who is presumably a PAP member.

Unlike previous unrest, such as the 1989 riots in Lhasa or the March 2008 incident, during which nervous and sometimes vengeful PAP officers were confronted with an emergency, the troops in the video are not responding to any immediate threat.

As of last evening, the 22-minute video appeared to have been taken offline. It has since emerged on YouTube.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

NOTES: The pictures used in this post are from eight photographs released by a Tibetan Web site last week, and are not from the video discussed in this article. 

The list of names the PAP is searching for appears at 16’06” in the video and has twelve names. One of them, Pasang, 38, is believed to be the same individual sentenced to life for beating and smashing objects during the March 2008 Incident.

The level of despair among Tibetans was captured by Tsering Woeser, a Tibetan poet, in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. Commenting on the 13 monks and nuns who have committed suicide in protest since 2009, Woeser said the Chinese Communist Party does not understand why this is happening.

“The despots only believe in guns and money. They not only have no faith themselves, they can't even understand the power of faith to motivate acts of great selflessness,” she wrote. “Tibetans are not so foolish that they value their lives lightly. Rather it is the despots who have ignited the flames that engulfed these monks and nuns by pushing them to the point of desperation.”

“[N]o matter how it tries to hide the self-immolations and distort their meaning, the truth continues to get out. Even in that high elevation, where Tibet stands at the end of a muzzle of a gun, there will always be Tibetans ready and willing to become ‘burning martyrs,’” she wrote.

GIO remains silent about China’s tightening media

Despite vows to liberalize its media environment for the Olympics, China has imposed further restrictions on the press. This raises serious questions about cross-strait media exchanges

The Government Information Office (GIO) yesterday refused to comment on reports showing a tightening of media controls in China and said it would maintain its plan to further open Taiwan to Chinese journalists.

Chinese social media were abuzz over the weekend after remarks by the new head of China Central Television (CCTV), who said that the first job of a journalist was to serve as a “mouthpiece” for the state, were leaked on the Internet.

Hu Zhanfan (胡占凡), who took the reins at CCTV last month, said journalists who believed they were independent professionals rather than “propaganda workers” were making a “fundamental mistake.”

Although Hu had made the comments at a special forum on “fake news” in January, they quickly spread after they were posted on a Chinese microblogging site over the weekend. Angered by signs that the media environment was failing to liberalize, some Chinese Internet users likened Hu to Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels.

By yesterday, the posting had attracted more than 10,000 responses, though most were quickly removed by censors.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Recent discussions with China and Hong Kong-based fellow journalists compelled me to try to distinguish between what I believe are two types of media censorship regarding China, both of which rear up their ugly heads in the above article. As I discussed in a recent article, there are questions about the degree to which editorials and op-eds in state-owned Chinese media, such as the People’s Daily, reflect official policy in Beijing. Some media controlled by the state, such as the Global Times, have adopted a more aggressive stance as they seek a larger marked share, and as such may aim for a more sensationalistic editorial line. On some occasions, as on the South China Sea, editorial may appear that are more nationalistic and extremist than official Chinese policy. Such media can also serve as an echo chamber reflecting debate within the Chinese elite and government circles. In general, however, the main editorial line adopted by state-controlled media exists within parameters set by the CCP, oftentimes resulting from meetings between government officials and the editors-in-chief. In other words, we can expect state-owned media to reflect, to a fair  extent, official policy in Beijing. This applies to Hong Kong-based media that are also owned by “PRC interests,” such as Wen Wei Po, Ta Kung Pao, and the Hong Kong Commercial Daily.

The other type of censorship applies to media that aren’t owned by the CCP but whose owners have substantial business interests in China, a list that includes, but isn’t limited to, the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong and the China Times and Want Want Bao in Taiwan. While such media are technically free of editorial meddling by Beijing, the well-being of their business interests in China is largely contingent on good relations with the CCP. Consequently, such media will usually refrain from carrying stories that are overly critical of China on human rights, Tibet, Xinjiang, the Falun Gong and Taiwan, among others. Some, either for the sake of “balance” or to please Beijing, will adopt an editorial stance that favors China, one that approximates what the editors believe Beijing wants to hear.

Locking in the ‘1992 consensus’

In addition to raising questions about future political talks, the appointment of Su Chi on the SEF board sends a signal to Beijing that the KMT is bent on destroying any chances of the DPP finding an alternative to the '1992 consensus'  

Upon being re-elected chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) on Friday, Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) vowed to forge ahead with negotiations under the so-called “1992 consensus,” a clear sign, if one was needed, that Beijing and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) intend to leave no room for the emergence of alternative approaches to cross-strait talks.

Chiang’s pledge plays right into the KMT’s insistence on abiding by the controversial consensus, whose existence is denied by both the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), who was in office at the time the agreement was alleged to have been struck.

Chiang showed that the nation’s top cross-strait negotiator is anything but neutral, since it has been widely rumored that the DPP is hard at work trying to ensure that communication with Beijing would not cease if the party’s presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), were elected on Jan. 14. Although the DPP has refused to confirm the rumor, at least two of Tsai’s advisers are reportedly engaged in talks with Chinese officials on alternatives to the “1992 consensus” that would be palatable to both sides — perhaps a sign that Beijing realizes that a DPP return to the executive office is not altogether impossible.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

European election observers denied funding by MOFA

Although it will not provide financial help to foreign observers, a MOFA official said technical support would be provided on a case-by-case basis to any delegation seeking to experience Taiwan's democratic development

Academics from top European institutes said that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has declined to fund their visit to monitor the January elections in Taiwan, a development that follows upon similar claims by Australian academics last month.

A European source told the Taipei Times on Wednesday that the European academic election observers group, whose members would have drawn from three of the most influential think tanks in Europe — Chatham House, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP Berlin) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute — had been informed that the ministry would not provide funding for their visit.

The source said the ministry had provided financial assistance to the European observer group for the 2000, 2004 and 2008 presidential and legislative elections — under the administration of former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), then of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), and the Democratic Progressive Party.

This would mark the first time that the group would not be able to come to Taiwan, the source said, adding that the ministry did not provide reasons for the decision.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

UPDATE: Following publication of this article, I was informed that in the past, MOFA provided funds in the form of a donation to the Asia Research Centre at the London School of Economics (LSE), which covered a series of Taiwan-related projects, including election observers. The funds came from MOFA and the accounts had to be sent to the ministry, but to maintain academic independence they were channeled through the Centre. That Centre is no longer operative, as its director stepped down a few years ago and was not replaced.

Ex-Varyag embarks on second sea trial

Unconfirmed reports claim that aircraft still cannot land on the carrier because Russia has refused to sell China the necessary arrestor cables

China's modified Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier embarked on its second official sea trial on 29 November amid rumors that it remains 'dead in the water' as a result of Russia's refusal to supply key components.

In a press conference the Chinese Ministry of National Defense said that all refit work and testing in the ex-Varyag was completed on schedule following its initial sea trial on 10 August.

The 67,000-tonne carrier left Dalian in Liaoning Province and headed for the Yellow Sea, where the latest trial is to be conducted.

My article, published on November 30 in Jane's Defence Weekly, continues here (subscription required).