China developing EMALS-type catapults for aircraft carriers

An EMALS catapult test range in the United States

It could still be a long while before Chinese engineers master a technology that the US has been working on since the mid-1980s 

Chinese engineers are reportedly trying to develop an electromagnetic catapult system for China's future aircraft carriers, the People's Liberation Army Daily claimed in a 28 April report. 

General Ma Weiming (馬偉明), a professor at the PLA Naval University of Engineering, is said to have led the efforts to develop the system, which seeks to emulate the development of the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) in the United States. 

Compared to existing steam catapult technology, an electromagnetic catapult is seen to offer improved efficiency, increased launch energy, lower through-life costs and improved end-speed control. Additionally, the scalability of the system is better suited for launching unmanned aerial vehicles. 

My article, published today in Jane's Defence Weekly, continues here (subscription required). What follows is background information not included in my JDW article:

General Ma Weiming

Aside from older carriers, like China’s refurbished ex-Varyag, which use ski jumps to launch aircraft, modern nuclear aircraft carriers use steam catapult technology to give naval aircraft the extra boost necessary to launch (push) from their decks. However, steam technology — which usually uses a piping system to collect steam from the ship’s nuclear reactor (heat is transmitted to a secondary loop via a heat exchanger)* — is very stressful on airframes and is maintenance intensive. 

EMALS catapults use a process similar to an electromagnetic rail gun to accelerate (pull) the shuttle that propels an aircraft on the deck, and allows for more gradual acceleration which reduces stress on the airframe. Given the amount of energy required to propel an aircraft from a deck within 3 seconds — enough to power 12,000 homes, according to Defense Industry Daily — carriers using electromagnetic propulsion require generators that can weigh as much as 80,000lbs. 

Provided the technology is developed in time, the US Navy’s CVN-21 Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers, which are in the building stage, will use EMALS on their decks. The UK has also mulled the technology for its Queen Elizabeth-class carriers, in part to accommodate F-35C aircraft. The US-based General Atomics is spearheading the efforts. Among the advantages of EMALS catapults are their higher energy, which allow for launching of heavier naval aircraft on a deck. It is also said that EMALS make it easier to control the sequence of UAV launches.

Test launches using EMALS have already been successful with a variety of aircraft, with further compatibility testing scheduled for this year and reliability tests next year. System integration and certification expected in 2015, the same year the first CVN-21 hull, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is scheduled for commissioning. 

China reportedly has plans to build two conventional and two nuclear aircraft carriers by 2020. Unconfirmed reports also indicate that the conventionally powered ex-Varyag, which is expected to enter service in August, could eventually be retrofitted as a nuclear-powered carrier and outfitted with EMALS catapults.

*With thanks to James Holmes of the US Naval War College for explaining the principle behind this.

‘Beidou’ coming together: No. 12, 13 orbiters launched

A Long March-3B rocket blasts off yesterday

With each new satellite added, China’s global positioning system is becoming more accurate 

A Long March-3B rocket blasted off from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Xichang, Sichuan Province, yesterday, carrying two more satellites for China’s Beidou-2, or “Compass,” global positioning system.

The two orbiters, No. 12 and 13, joined a constellation of satellites that, by 2020, should comprise more than 30. Yesterday marked the first time China launched two satellites on a single rocket. In addition to global-positioning functionality for civilian use, the Beidou system will also provide the People’s Liberation Army with accurate imagery for use military use, including precision targeting for its cruise missiles and UAV navigation.

Strange things afoot at Taiwan Foundation for Democracy

Groups protest on Ketagalan Blvd ahead of Labor Day

Amid a legal case that risks damaging the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy’s image, new regulations also point to increased monitoring of employees 

The Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD) is facing criticism amid allegations of discrimination against a foreign employee and the implementation of internal security rules that allow monitoring of employees’ movement and Internet activity.

Bo Tedards

At the heart of the criticism is the case of Bo Tedards, who was removed from his duties as director of the foundation’s International Cooperation Department and reassigned as a researcher after returning from eight months of parental leave in January last year.

TFD director Huang Teh-fu (黃德福), who had informed Tedards of his demotion — which came with a NT$10,000 reduction in salary — denied the reassignment had anything to do with Tedards’ parental leave and launched an administrative appeal with the Council of Labor Affairs. After the council turned down the appeal on Jan. 20, Huang initiated legal action at the Taipei District Court against the city government. Since early last year, the foundation has also implemented a series of new regulations to keep tabs on its employees. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Special forces receive new light combat vehicle

The Special Combat and Assault Vehicle (SC-09A)

The domestically produced SC-09A has been introduced with the SFC's 871 Airborne Group 

The Ministry of National Defense has begun delivering a new indigenous light combat vehicle to be used by special forces for off-road combat operations. 

The unarmored, 1,225kg four-wheel-drive Special Combat and Assault Vehicle (SC-09A) was locally manufactured, with an initial contract for 56 vehicles, Defense News reported yesterday, adding that a ministry source would not reveal the identity of the manufacturer. 

The 871 Airborne Group under Special Forces Command is the first unit to receive the three-seat vehicle, which comes with -puncture-proof wheels, an anti-blast fuel tank, night-vision equipment and a searchlight, the article said. The vehicle has right passenger and rear gun mounts that can be fitted with MK-19 40mm grenade launchers and T-74 machine guns, Defense News said, adding that a third gun rack, which can accommodate three T-91 assault rifles, was located in the rear compartment. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Useful toe treading by Taiwan?

Aerial view of Taiping, with airstrip clearly visible

If handled properly, overlapping claims in the South China Sea could give Taiwan an opportunity to join multilateral regional organizations 

In a recent article in the Web-based journal of international affairs The Diplomat, Cain Nunns makes some interesting observations about the harm that Taipei’s claim to the South China Sea is causing to its already fragile diplomatic relations. 

To briefly summarize his argument, the claim that the entire South China Sea belongs to the Republic of China (ROC) — made, according to Nunns’ count, nine times by President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration over the past 18 months — is a preposterous attachment to the ROC Constitution of 1947, which came into force before Chinese Communist Party forces had the chance to kick Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) across the Taiwan Strait. 

Nunns argues that, in addition to needlessly alienating regional claimants at a time when Taipei can ill afford to do so, the claims are identical to those made by Beijing, an overlapping phenomenon that could be part of Ma’s efforts to blur the lines between Taiwan and China under “one China.”

Former president Chen visits Taiping

Valid though such points may be, they fail to account for the fact that when in power from 2000 until 2008, the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintained the claims to the contested series of islands in the South China Sea. 

My op-ed, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

‘Carrier killer’ program goes ahead

A computer rendition of the corvette provided by MND

Between seven and 11 500-tonne Swift Sea stealth corvettes, each equipped with eight anti-ship cruise missiles, are to be built by 2014 

Despite hitting a snag in a recent bidding process, the navy is proceeding with the development of a stealth 500-tonne fast attack missile boat that is already being hailed as Taiwan’s “carrier killer.” 

Plans for the indigenous development of the 500-tonne corvette were first made public in 2009. In April the following year, Deputy Minister of National Defense Lin Yu-pao (林於豹) told the legislature that design work as part of the Hsun Hai (迅海, “Swift Sea”) program was completed and that bidding would be held this year. The legislature last year passed a NT$24.98 billion (US$853.4 million) budget to build between seven and 11 corvettes, with delivery scheduled for 2014. The boats are reportedly expected to remain in service for 25 years.

China's Houbei-class Type 022

The corvettes will come equipped with eight Hsiung Feng II (HF-2) and Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) anti-ship missiles, as well as a 76mm rapid-fire bow gun. The catamaran-style design, reports said, may have been inspired by the 220-tonne Houbei-class Type 022 catamaran recently deployed by China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here. James Holmes of the US Naval War College comments on this development in The Diplomat.

Where’s the sense of national pride?

President Ma's inauguration, May 20, 2008

Cutting costs is one thing. Slashing budgets on symbols of national pride, while spending billions on celebrations for the ROC centennial, is something else 

With the much-vaunted Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) evidently failing to deliver on the government’s promise to improve the economy, and with inflationary concerns on the rise, President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration has decided to reduce costs. This makes sense, but there is a problem: These cuts are targeting the key symbols of nationhood. 

Nearly four years into Ma’s first term and less than a month before he embarks on his second, the state of Taiwan’s economy is rather underwhelming — especially for an administration that never misses an opportunity to accuse its predecessor of mishandling that very sector. The TAIEX is tumbling, salaries are stagnant, exports (even to China) are down and GDP growth has been sliced so often it might as well be salami. 

The only thing that has gone up during that period is the cost of living, a trend that is about to be exacerbated by major hikes in energy prices. 

As a responsible government that cares for the welfare of its people, the Ma administration has announced that the May 20 presidential inauguration ceremonies will cost no more than NT$6 million (US$200,000), 85 percent less than the cost of the inauguration in 2008 and 91 percent less than former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) inauguration in 2004. Among other things, a fireworks display and a party will be canceled, leaving pretty much just a banquet. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

The dragon wants out of the bottle

The pattern of Chinese flights around the waters near Okinawa indicates greater efforts at intelligence collection 

Up until recently China remained a predominantly continental entity, with a military that reflected that historical predisposition. As China’s national power continues to grow, so have its ambitions to expand, and this means becoming a seafaring nation. This, of course, is bound to bring it in proximity to other countries in the Asia Pacific. In recent months, the tensions that inhere from this expansion have become all the more prominent, with Chinese vessels clashing with the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, over which Beijing claims sovereignty in its entirety.

Earlier this year, Beijing was also turning the screw on Seoul over waters surrounding the disputed Ieo Island off South Korea. Now Japan’s Defense Ministry this week released its data on the number of times it had to scramble aircraft in response to foreign approaches to its airspace in 2011.

 In all, Air Self-Defense Force fighter aircraft were scrambled 156 times in response to Chinese aircraft approaching Japanese airspace last year, a record high for China since the Defense Ministry started releasing such data by country in 2001, Kyodo news reported on Wednesday.

Japanese military aircraft made sorties on 425 occasions as a precaution against approaching foreign aircraft in the year to March 31, the first time in 20 years that the number exceeded 400, the ministry said, adding that this was evidence, in part, of increasing military activity by China in the East China Sea. (By country, the greatest number of operations targeted Russian airplanes at 247 times, which was down 17 from the previous year.)

Japan’s SDF also said that flight patterns by Chinese aircraft had diversified, with intelligence-gathering planes (including the four-engine turboprop Y-8 maritime patrol/anti-submarine warfare aircraft, pictured above) standing out. A number of such flights occurred close to Okinawa, which serves as a major base for US forces that would likely be involved in a Taiwan contingency. As China gathers intelligence on facilities there and elsewhere, it will be in a better position, should it come to that, to target bases there preemptively — probably using MRBMs — before launching an attack against Taiwan.

New US intelligence agency to place emphasis on China

The Defense Clandestine Service has been tasked with focusing on ‘national intelligence’ and major ‘ascendant powers’ 

US intelligence is following suit on US President Barack Obama’s “pivot” to Asia with the creation of a new clandestine intelligence service that is set to put greater emphasis on Asia — and China in particular. 

Following a plan approved last week by US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, the new Defense Clandestine Service will cement cooperation between existing case officers from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) already operating outside war zones and those from the CIA, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

The new service, which is being touted as a “realignment” of human intelligence efforts, will grow “from several hundred to several more hundred” agents in the coming years as personnel and funding are redirected from current assignments, predominantly Iraq and Afghanistan, to Asia. 

Like CIA agents, DIA officers traditionally work out of US embassies and missions worldwide, either as declared military attaches or undercover. A number of DIA agents are known to operate in Taiwan. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

USAF long-range exercise may have had China in mind

A nation-wide bombing exercise involving aircraft based in Japan highlighted the US Air Force’s ability to operate in a large anti-access target area 

A long-range strike exercise held by the US Strategic Command earlier this month may have been intended as a practice run for a future contingency involving China, military analysts have said. 

The exercise, codenamed Operation Chimichanga, was held at the US military’s Joint Pacific Alaska Range Complex near Eilson Air Force Base, Alaska, and involved a variety of combat aircraft and bombers, including F-22 Raptor stealth fighters, B-1 bombers, E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system (AWACS) and KC-135 Stratotankers air-refueling aircraft. US Air Force F-16s from Misawa Air Base in northern Japan also took part. 

The exercise involved launches of a combination of real and computer-simulated weapons at mock targets scattered across the Joint Pacific Alaska Range. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Navigating the pivot

Renewed US leadership in the region can benefit everybody, including China

Although the claim that the US had abandoned Asia never fully held up to scrutiny, in recent months the Obama administration has repeatedly signaled its new commitment to the region, a decision that will not only have direct implications for China, but also for Washington's allies.

The Strategic Vision journal, published under the auspices of the Center for Security Studies at Taiwan's National Defense University, invited me to share my views on what the so-called US pivot could mean for the future of the region. The entire journal can be accessed here, with my article starting on page 9.

US coast guard, navy help rescue Taiwanese vessel

A volunteer global network whose origins can be traced back to the sinking of the Titanic 100 years ago also took part in the operation

A P-3 “Orion” marine patrol aircraft from a US patrol squadron, as well as the US Coast Guard, took part in the rescue at sea of 10 Taiwanese fishermen on Saturday, 1,120km off the west coast of Guam.

The Honolulu-based Coast Guard District 14 - Sector Guam received an alert from an emergency position-indicating radio beacon from the Taiwanese fishing vessel Hsin Man Chun at about 4:30pm.

After a request for assistance from the US Coast Guard, a P-3 aircraft from Patrol Squadron (VP) 1 “Screaming Eagles” based at Naval Air Facility Misawa in Japan, located 10 crewmembers from the fishing vessel, which had caught fire.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here .

Beijing’s convenient bad neighbor

As long as conflict in the Korean Peninsula does not devolve into war, North Korea will remain a useful tool for Beijing to distract its adversaries

As the UN launches an investigation into the possibility that China broke international sanctions against North Korea by providing it with banned technology, the global community should think again about the role Beijing has played as a negotiator in disarmament talks with Pyongyang over the years.

Beijing denies it provided North Korea with the 16-wheel transporter- erector- launcher (TEL) vehicle, pictured at a military parade on April 15, that made Beijing, rather than Pyongyang, the main focus of the international community this week. Providing a TEL — a vehicle used to transport and launch ballistic missiles — to North Korea would be in breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1874, adopted in 2009, which prohibits the supply to North Korea of “any arms or related materiel, or providing financial transactions, technical training, services or assistance related to such arms.”

Military experts who analyzed the images claim the TEL seen at the parade bore strikingly similar characteristics to a TEL design by the 9th Academy of China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp (CASIC).

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Anti-airborne drill at Hsinchu Air Force Base

A few observations on the drill at Hsinchu AFB, on day four of the 28th annual Han Kuang series of military exercises

I got up at 4:30am on Thursday to attend an anti-airborne drill at Hsinchu Air Force Base on day four of the weeklong 28th Han Kuang military exercises. While, as had already been established, the exercise did not involve live fire, it nevertheless provided some occasional eye candy.

In all, 1,584 personnel were mobilized from the 499th Tactical Fighter Wing, special operations forces, a chemical group, an engineering group, a signals group and armored cavalry units. Thirty-four types of weapons were involved, including Mirage-2000s, C-130s, AH-1W Super Cobra helicopters, OH-58D surveillance helicopters, Antelope air defense systems (with Tien Chien I surface-to-air missiles), M-41D tanks and V-150 APCs.

In the opening salvo, more than 200 paratroopers from Army Special Operations Command — the main component of OPFOR (Red Team) — jumped from seven C-130s and took positions in preparation for taking over Hsinchu AFB. In response, the 499th Tactical Fighter Wing led the Blue Team and deployed anti-airborne defenses. Across the theater of operations, orders were relayed to air, ground and sea forces, including the 601st Air Cavalry Brigade, artillery and military police units, as they struck at OPFOR upon landing.

With the 862nd Special Warfare Brigade providing cover fire from various ground and elevated positions, the Special Air Service under the Aviation and Special Warfare Command, moved in to occupy key positions around the base. The Red Team also came under attack from AH-1W Super Cobra helicopters, while a pair of OH-58D conducted surveillance. Blue Team mopped up the landing zone with eight M-41Ds and two V-150s.

Giving Taiwan the deterrent it needs

High-profile US arms sales to Taiwan may have political value, but the key to ensuring stability in the Taiwan Strait lies in allowing Taiwan to develop its missile arsenal

Much has been made in recent months of the United States’ so-called “pivot” to Asia, which, according to some, could represent the beginning of a new era of engagement in the Asia-Pacific amid China’s rise.

However, one state that should be part of Washington’s strategy has been conspicuous by the absence of any reference to a possible role for it in that emerging multilateral architecture. That is Taiwan. The lack of mention of the longstanding U.S. ally in the region is no accident; rather, it’s a calculated effort on Washington’s part to avoid making its “return” to Asia too controversial in Beijing, which already regards the pivot as the latest in a long list of exercises in containment.

Given this, it’s unlikely that Taiwan, however eloquently Mark Stokes and Russell Hsiao may have argued the benefits in a recent article, will be made a partner as an ad hoc partner in any emerging AirSea Battle concept spearheaded by the U.S.

My op-ed, published today in The Diplomat, continues here.

Taiwan faces balance of naval power crisis

In the next few years, the Taiwanese navy could be down to 18 frigates/destroyers in the 3,000-plus tonnage category, from 43 during the 1996 Missile Crisis

A backlog of costly arms acquisitions by Taiwan could be forcing the navy to cut back on requests for frigates from the US, which threatens to exacerbate the widening tonnage gap in the Taiwan Strait as the nation decommissions ageing vessels.

Citing a Taiwanese defense industry source, Defense News said in a report published this week that the navy could request two — rather than four, as initially planned — decommissioned long-hull Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates as excess defense articles (EDA) from the US.

The article said the plan to acquire the four frigates was cancelled late last year because of cost and technical considerations, adding that the military was struggling to pay for roughly US$18 billion in weapons released by the US in the past four years.

Although China Shipbuilding Corp (中船) is capable of building Perry-class frigates — it has built eight so far, known locally as Cheng Kung-class — the source told Defense News that acquisitions from the US would be the quickest and least costly way to add the much-needed vessels to the navy. Building them would cost upwards of US$2 billion, the source said, much higher than the “near-scrap” price under EDA, even when refurbishment and upgrade costs are added.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Two more Taiwanese officials indicted for spying

An ex-NSB officer and a former psychological warfare specialist were caught trying to pass sensitive information to Chinese intelligence

Revelations of recruitment of Taiwanese by Chinese intelligence seem to have settled into a comfortable frequency, with arrests or indictments being made on an almost monthly basis now.

A little more than a month after an Air Force captain was caught passing on classified information about Taiwan’s air defense systems to China via his uncle — a businessman in China — two former intelligence officers were charged on Monday and indicted today on charges of collecting sensitive information for China.

According to the indictment, Tsai Kuo-bin (蔡國賓), 65, a former captain at the National Security Bureau (NSB), had spied for China for several years, and visited China on a number of occasions between 2007 and 2010. He is suspected of trying to acquire, and to have delivered, information on Taiwanese intelligence and Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau (MJIB) personnel, domestic politics, cross-strait relations, and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). China is said to have paid Tsai a total sum of NT$620,000 (US$20,000) for his efforts. 

According to the charges, Tsai was recruited by the Public Security Bureau (PSB) in Fujian Province. At the time of his retirement in 1994, Tsai was head of a unit at the NSB gathering cultural and educational intelligence on China.

Prosecutors said Tsai also recruited the 63-year-old Wang Wei-ya (王維亞), a former officer at the Ministry of National Defense’s General Political Warfare Department, and asked him to acquire a book — 情報生涯30年 — containing classified information about 30 years of Taiwanese intelligence, which was banned before it could be published. Interestingly, after retiring from the military in 1994, Wang, by then a major, worked at the KMT Mainland Affairs Department, where he focused on psychological warfare and intelligence-gathering until 2006.

Tsai and Wang, who were arrested in September last year, face a maximum jail term of five years.

Tibetan health minister met Chiu at DOH, discussed cooperation

A Taiwanese official says the DOH minister greeted Tsering in passing. Tibetans report the two spent a while discussing healthcare cooperation between Taiwan and Dharamsala 

The health minister for the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamsala, India, visited Taiwan last week to discuss cooperation on health with his Taiwanese counterparts — including Department of Health (DOH) Minister Chiu Wen-ta (邱文達).

Contact between Taiwanese officials and Tibetan representatives is always a sensitive matter given Beijing’s hardline position on Tibet and government-to-government contacts by Taiwanese officials.

The visit also occurred amid efforts by President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration to improve relations with Beijing.

According to the Tibetan Central Administration (TCA) Web site, Tibetan Health Kalon (minister) Tsering Wangchuk visited Taiwan last week and met top officials at the department, the Bureau of International Cooperation and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), as well as hospitals, to garner support for assistance in the healthcare system for the exiled Tibetan community.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

TAO’s Wang Yi in Washington for talks on Taiwan

Wang and US officials did not discuss the recent proposal by former KMT chairman Wu Poh-hsiung of a 'one country, two areas' framework, but the former told academics the concept was a step in the right direction

US Deputy Secretary of State William Burns on Thursday reaffirmed Washington’s adherence to the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) during a meeting with Taiwan Affairs Office Minister Wang Yi (王毅).

Wang, who is in the US on a regular visit, also met senior White House officials, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, members of Congress and academics, including former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Bush and Kenneth Lieberthal from the Brookings Institution, and Alan Romberg of the Stimson Center.

During his meeting with Burns, Wang said he hoped the US would continue to play an active role in the process of relations across the Taiwan Strait, adding that “positive developments” in the strait could help Sino-US relations develop along the lines of mutual trust rather than friction.

China’s state-owned Xinhua news agency made no mention of Burns’ reaffirming Washington’s adherence to the TRA in its coverage of his talks with Wang.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Amateur hour on national security

Yet more signs that Ma administration officials underestimate, or are not taking seriously enough, the threat posed by Chinese espionage

The revelation this week that Jacqueline Liu (劉姍姍), the former head of the nation’s representative office in Kansas City, Missouri, hired a Chinese national as a housekeeper late last year after her second Philippine maid had fled is as sad as it is worrying. What it is not, though, is surprising, given how lax this administration has become on national security.

As if the alleged mistreatment of two housemaids, which sullied the nation’s image abroad, were not enough, Liu also broke Ministry of Foreign Affairs regulations by hiring Xie Dengfeng (謝登鳳), a Chinese national, and concealing Xie’s identity from the ministry. Such actions could have endangered national security.

In her defense, the embattled Liu says she was unaware of the ministry regulations on hiring Chinese nationals. It is hard to imagine which possibility is worse — that she is lying, or that she was indeed unaware of the rules, which raises serious questions about internal security and counterintelligence at the ministry.

As any Taiwanese official should know, the Chinese intelligence apparatus is monitoring Taiwanese diplomatic missions abroad, and there is no reason to believe that the office in Kansas was any different.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Online photos point to PRC deployment of DF-16 missiles

What appears to be a new model of TEL could provide confirmation that China’s new medium-range ballistic missile has been deployed

Images of mobile launchers posted on the Internet last week could provide confirmation of the long-suspected deployment of the Dongfeng 16 (DF-16), China’s most recent medium-range ballistic missile.

The pictures, which were taken at an undisclosed location, showed a pair of 5x5 wheeled transport erector launcher (TEL) vehicles surmounted by wide, half-oval-shaped covers for the missile ramp, driving in an urban area. In three of the pictures seen by the Taipei Times, street signs had been digitally blurred out.

News of a potential new class of Dongfeng missile emerged in March last year when National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai De-sheng (蔡得勝) told the legislature that the Chinese military had completed testing the DF-16 and begun its deployment. The revelation caught the intelligence community by surprise and sparked debate on whether China had in fact developed a new class of missile or that what Tsai was referring to was simply an extended-range variant of the DF-15 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM).

Analysts said at the time that the DF-16 could have maneuverable capability to counter air-defense systems, such as Taiwan’s PAC-3s, with the higher re-entry speed associated with its higher ascent making it more difficult to intercept.

The TELs seen in the images that came out last week have larger missile ramp covers, which would indicate the presence of a missile larger than the DF-15 (pictured left, note the 4x4 wheel chassis). DF-11/15s comprise the majority of the missiles aimed at Taiwan.

It is also slightly different from the DF-21C MRBM (note the length of the missile, which extends all the way to the top of the driver's cabin, as well as a gap in the side panels between the third and fourth wheels).

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here. And here for Jane's Defence Weekly, with lots more fun technical stuff (subscription required).

MND mum on HF-3 anti-ship missile variant

The ministry does not comment on weapons programs, but it is well known that the military has been trying to extend the range of the missile for some time

The Ministry of National Defense (MND) yesterday refused to comment on a report in US-based Defense News the previous day that claimed that Taiwan was developing a new type of anti-ship cruise missile.

In a report titled “Taiwan Anti-Ship Missile Plan Place China’s Navy in Cross Hairs,” Defense News said that an unnamed Taiwanese defense industry source had informed it that the Taiwanese military was planning to build an extended-range anti-ship missile, possibly a variant of the Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) “Brave Wind” surface-to-surface missile (pictured above, right, with HF-2 next to it).

Once developed, the military would deploy the new missile on the eastern side of Taiwan and direct it across the Taiwan Strait at the Chinese coast, it said.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

China makes steady progress in ‘smart’ ammunitions development

Terminal-sensing projectiles are regarded as an especially promising weapon to attack the roof section of vehicles such as tanks and armored personnel carriers

The Chinese military is making steady progress in the development of smart ammunition technology, the PLA Daily reported yesterday, which could prove especially threatening to Taiwan’s armored vehicles.

The Baicheng Weapon Test Center announced on Friday that it had made “a significant breakthrough” in the development of technology known as terminal sensing ammunition, adding that the People’s Liberation Army had completed the theoretical work, including design, analysis, simulation, tests and evaluation of the new projectile.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Chinese navy eyes major expansion

The Chinese navy is expected to see a major transformation over the next decade

China is not satisfied with a single refurbished aircraft carrier and has plans to build two conventional and one nuclear-powered aircraft carriers by 2020, as well as 200 more vessels, a Russian military analysts’ Web site says.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy will also continue developing its submarine and missile forces, with the principal objective of breaking out of the first island chain, the Russian Military Review said.

In the view of Chinese strategists, the first island chain, an invisible line that extends from the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippines into the South China Sea, has kept China bottled in and prevents it from assuming its role as a major regional power.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Satellite images suggest changes at Chinese missile base

Despite ‘warming ties’ between Taiwan and China, the PLA is proceeding with the modernization of its ballistic missile forces targeting the island

Recent satellite images of a short-range missile base in China's Fujian province show signs of possible modernization efforts after an expected change in command structure.

Citing unnamed military sources, in late March US media said the images of Xianyou, in eastern Fujian, indicated that construction of a new missile base was nearly finished and that the People's Liberation Army had deployed its latest short-range missile there. However, sources have told IHS Jane's that the activity was more likely modernization of an existing ballistic missile brigade for ground support units, with DF-11As replacing older and shorter-range DF-11s and the brigade falling under control of the Second Artillery Corps.

My article, published on April 5 in Jane's Defence Weekly, can be accessed here (subscription required). My take for the Taipei Times, published on April 6, is here.

A government of half-truths

The problem with the Ma Ying-jeou administration’s fantasy world is that it can only work for so long

One should be wary of governments that tell the public that everything is fine and under control all the time. And yet, this is exactly the dish President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration has been serving the public since it came into office in 2008.

Just as with ordinary human beings, people who claim to be right all the time, or who deny even the possibility that something may have gone wrong, reveal one of two things about themselves: Either they’re lying, or they have lost touch with reality. It’s hard to tell which is worse, but the one thing that’s certain is that danger cannot but lurk far behind.

On almost every controversy — the poor handling of the Typhoon Morakot incident, bird flu outbreaks, a dangerous China policy, the theft by the state of private property, delays in the implementation of the second-generation national health insurance program, delays in phasing out conscription in the armed forces, disproportionate police deployments, the US beef flap and recent frictions with Singapore and Sao Tome and Principe to name a few — the Ma government has shot back at critics by saying that everything is fine and that the public should have faith in its ability to manage. The closest it has come to admitting deficiencies in governance was to slap low to mid-level government officials on the wrist, a reprimand that is usually followed by the official being moved to another branch of government or the warm embrace of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Ex-employee at TFD faces deportation

A US citizen’s life in Taiwan turned into a legal nightmare after government agencies said he had worked illegally for the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for years

A foreign national and single father to a Taiwanese son is facing deportation for allegedly working illegally for the government-linked Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD) in a case that raises questions over how the government handled the case.

The problems for Ben Hlavaty, a US citizen, began when he and his Taiwanese spouse divorced in May 2008. Until then, Hlavaty had an Alien Resident Certificate (ARC) through his marriage and did not need a work permit to work at the TFD, his employer since December 2007, when the Democratic Progressive Party was in power.

Aware that following his divorce his ARC would only be valid until Oct. 25 that year, Hlavaty informed his employer that if they wished him to continue working for them, TFD would have to help him apply for a work permit. The foundation subsequently contacted the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), which founded the TFD in 2002, and asked it to assist Hlavaty.

For a while, it looked like Hlavaty would be able to continue working in Taiwan and provide for his son. Then there was a change in government in 2008, and nothing would ever be the same...

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

China, Russia to hold naval drills

Alliances in the Asia-Pacific are taking shape, and it looks like a new Cold War might be upon us

The Chinese and Russian navies will conduct joint exercises in April and May, China's defence ministry announced in a regular press briefing on 29 March.

Military spokesman Yang Yujun did not specify the size of the exercises, which are to be held in the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea.

My article, published on Friday in Jane's Defence Weekly, continues here (subscription required). My article on the same subject in the Taipei Times today can be accessed here.

Inching toward breaking point

As the threat becomes more distinct, there will be a point where abstract fears become reality. Let us hope for Taiwan’s sake that this moment of reckoning occurs early enough to avoid a point of no return

As the day approaches when the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) enters its second term, it is becoming increasingly evident that Ma has been very lucky that Taiwanese have been both very patient and apathetic about his dangerous flirting with Beijing.

This might be about to change, as the disconnect between public expectations on relations with China and the policy direction in which the Ma administration appears to be engaging grows wider.

How out of sync Ma’s China policy is with public opinion became starker last week when, ostensibly with the president’s blessing, former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) — an unelected non-official, we must not forget — on a visit to Beijing delivered to Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) what can only be described as a blueprint for the future of cross-strait relations. That plan reflects far better Beijing’s position on Taiwan and on “one China” than it does the views of the public that voted for Ma and the KMT on Jan. 14.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

The wolves are closing in

Thoughts on wealth inequality, forced evictions, human rights, Taiwanese technocrats and the future of Taiwan

When Taiwanese voters elected Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in 2008 with such an overwhelming margin, they did so under the perception that the previous Democratic Progressive Party administration, which ruled from 2000 until 2008, was corrupt. When Taiwanese voters re-elected Ma in January 2012, they voted for technocrats, and this is what they got.

Under their watch, wealth inequality has increased, salaries for ordinary workers have stagnated, the CPI has gone up, as has the bourse, the cost of real estate, and unsurprisingly, the number of violations — of human rights or environmental laws — committed for urban renewal or industrial projects. The main victims have been people from the low to middle class: young graduates seeking their first job, modest home owners, small businesses, villagers, farmers.

The technocrats who gradually filled the ranks of Ma’s first term, and who now populate what can only be described as a Cabinet of uninspiring and utterly uncharismatic policy implementers, will only do more of that. And this is only going to get worse as the impact of Chinese investment, which is now being allowed in a variety of hitherto off-limit sectors, begins to be felt. Already, studies have shown that whatever positive economic impact the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed between Taiwan and China in June 2010 has been felt predominantly by large businesses, while more fragile sectors, such as SMEs and farmers, apprehend signs of a bleak future. The same applies to the purchasing delegations sent by China, party to help Ma get re-elected.

But can Taiwanese really expect the KMT, the party of the rich and powerful, to protect the rights of the less wealthy? Asset disclosures from the Control Yuan earlier this year showed that Premier Sean Chen (陳冲), Judicial Yuan President Rai Hau-min (賴浩敏) and Examination Yuan President John Kuan (關中), to name just three, have total assets exceeding NT$100 million (US$3.4 million) each. Chen and his wife own seven buildings and one plot of land in Taipei’s Xinyi District (信義). For his part, Rai owns no less than seventeen plots of land in Da-an District (大安). 

Not only do such assets place those officials in the ranks of the wealthy, they are also the cause of  potential conflicts of interest. Why would officials adopt policies to rectify soaring real estate costs to help ordinary citizens when doing so would negatively affect the value of their properties? A similar conflict arises when we consider expanding Chinese investment in Taiwan. Can officials who stand to gain from such investments be trusted to act with the interests of ordinary Taiwanese in mind? What of the negotiators who strike agreements with their Chinese counterparts, who often have business interests in China, or have family members who do? Or the owners of large corporations who openly support the KMT in election time, knowing they will reap the benefits of closer engagement with, or access to, the huge market across the Taiwan Strait? Who looks after the needs and rights of ordinary citizens when politics become the means for the rich and powerful to further enrich themselves?

It’s hard to imagine any of the above-mentioned government officials, or owners of large corporations, suffering the same fate as that of the Wang (王) family yesterday, who saw their two houses in Taipei’s Shilin District (士林) torn down by city officials to make way for an urban renewal project. The Wangs, who had lived there for more than a decade, were the sole voice of opposition to the project; 38 other households were in favor. Under the Urban Renewal Act (都市更新條例), the construction firm in charge of the project was entitled to ask the city government flatten the Wangs’ homes even if they refused to move out, as more than 75 percent of the landowners on the site of the future project agreed to the plan.

And flatten them they did, while about 300 supporters of the Wangs gathered to express their anger. In a scene more at home in China than Taiwan, the city government deployed more than 1,000 police officers to ensure stability while the houses were being razed, an unusually high 3:1 police-to-protester ratio.

One wonders if, under the Act, government officials or wealthy entrepreneurs facing a similar situation (say, the entire neighborhood is in favor of an urban renewal project, but the official/entrepreneur refuses) would, like the Wangs, suddenly find themselves homeless. Chances are they wouldn’t.

Sadly, we’re bound to see more of what befell the Wangs, as land owners, expecting future liberalization of rules on Chinese investment, engage in speculation and await the day when wealthy Chinese are allowed to buy land and property here. How else can we explain the dozens, if not hundreds, of brand new, entirely empty, apartment buildings that have sprung up around the city in recent years, pushing ordinary residents ever further on the peripheries? This says nothing about the young entrants on the job market who do not make enough money to be able to buy a house, let alone start a family.

Such a scenario hit very close to, well, home last year when a city government official, accompanied by a developer, knocked at my door and said they were asking around the neighbourhood whether owners would agree to the entire area being razed to make room for … large, expensive, shiny apartment buildings that not a single one of us could ever hope of being able to afford? While I made no secret of my resentment for such an outcome, I had to tell the pair that I had no say on the matter, as I do not own the house where I live. I can’t afford to buy in Taipei.

The treatment of the Wangs by the city government appears to have angered a lot of people. Already I am told that Internet chat rooms and Facebook are mobilizing against what, despite legal backing, can only be described as a human rights violation. Ultimately, those who feel powerless against the wealthy will find common cause with those who oppose the government on matters of Taiwanese identity in the face of ongoing efforts by the authoritarian regime in Beijing to swallow Taiwan. The closer ties between the KMT and wealthy Chinese investors, which China is relying upon to accomplish its political aims, will only exacerbate social injustice, and the ordinary Taiwanese who resent the idea of being ruled by the Chinese Communist Party will realize that they have a lot in common with the Wangs and others who, even for those who show little interest in issues of national politics, or independence versus unification, stand to lose just as much if the technocrats on either side of the Taiwan Strait have their way.

Only when those two forces are joined for the cause of rights will opposition to this government have enough momentum that it cannot continue to be ignored. Taiwanese will have to be creative, use their imagination, and be far more vocal than they have been in the past four years, even at the risk (heaven forbid!) of being uncivil. They’ve been sheep for far too long; the wolves are circling and getting ever closer. 

A slightly different version of this article appeared in the Taipei Times on April 5 and can be accessed here.

As loaded as a Chinese AK-47

An article by the state-owned CNA blames Taiwan’s open society for ‘xenophobia’ and ‘ignorance’ toward Chinese students

It’s easy to lose track of the number of occasions in the media where one encounters language that seeks to create a moral equivalence in the Taiwan Strait. The conflict, as anyone who bothers to learn the facts will quickly realize, is not symmetrical and does not involve two belligerents. Only one side, China, threatens the other, Taiwan, through economic or political absorption — or, in the extreme, war.

Still, even in the supposedly apolitical realms of, say, education and culture, one often comes upon language that not only politicizes the matter, but also portrays Taiwan as the aggressor or unjust, irresponsible party.

Our exhibit today is an article by the government-owned Central News Agency (CNA) published on Saturday — and later carried in this newspaper (“Policy on China students needs change: experts,” March 26, page 3) that discusses the prevailing divisions among Taiwanese on how to treat Chinese students, who were last year for the first time allowed to enroll full-time in local schools.

Following a series of uncontroversial and self-evident remarks about the need to make the Taiwanese education system more global and competitive, the article turns to Yu Zelin (余澤霖), a Chinese student at the Chinese Culture University, who voices a number of complaints about the system.

After bemoaning the fact that students like him were afraid to see a doctor when they got sick or did not dare get sick, as they could end up paying expensive medical bills because of their exclusion from the national health insurance plan, Yu then complains that Chinese students’ hard work at school is not rewarded, as they are not allowed to receive scholarships from the Taiwanese government.

My op-ed, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

China changes us, one censorship at a time

Unless we push back, even our cherished institutions that defend freedom of speech risk becoming the victims of the CCP’s propaganda machine

One recurring theme in my writing about the “China threat” over the years is that of self-censorship and the complicity of others in Beijing’s suppression of human rights and free speech. We’ve seen this at movie festivals, in the media, in governments’ refusal to grant landing visas to dissidents — all for the sake of not “angering” the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or securing the next profitable business deal.

Even the most jaded Realist cannot avoid realizing that communist China is the closest thing we have today to Big Brother and the propagandistic and revisionist Ministry of Truth in George Orwell’s prescient and stunningly durable novel Nineteen Eighty Four. Only the North Korea regime has taken newspeak to even greater heights, but Pyongyang’s ability to affect and transform the international community is so minimal (nuclear war aside) that it doesn’t qualify for our purposes here.

The “Beijing Consensus,” as one reporter recently titled a book on the subject, is changing our lives, one censorship at a time. This isn’t only about reporters who aren’t allowed to accompany foreign delegations on a visit to Beijing, as was recently the case with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s call at Zhongnanhai. This is also about institutions whose original intent was exactly the opposite of what the CPP is trying to accomplish on freedom of speech.

One such institution is the London Book Fair, which celebrated its 40th anniversary last year and runs April 16-18. The main theme of this year’s fair is China, with the aim of showcasing “the very best of Chinese literature today.”

At first glance, the line-up is an impressive one: 180 publishers from China and 21 Chinese authors, all brought to London in partnership with the British Council.

But there’s a problem. Not a single author is independent — all have been vetted and approved by Chinese censors, which means that their work is as much art as it is propaganda for the CCP, or at least isn’t regarded as “spiritual pollution” by the regime. This also means that not a single exiled Chinese author has been invited.

Still doubt the organizers’ complicity? The London Book Fair is cooperating with the General Administration of Press and Publications (GAPP), the agency that “regulates” all print media in China. Furthermore, another organization involved is The Chunqiu Equinox Institute, which was founded by Eric X Li, who argued in an op-ed in the New York Times last year that the US should roll back its democracy to become more like China.

“[The delegation] doesn’t include any independent voice, they are cleaning us away,” exiled writer Bei Ling (貝嶺), the head of the Independent Chinese Pen club, who now lives in California, told the BBC last week. Because of this, Pen has decided to downgrade its ties with this year’s book fair. One could very well argue that when dealing with China, inviting writers as part of a delegation, rather than as individuals, can only but invite such censorship on the part of Chinese authorities.

At the Frankfurt Book Fair in 2009, which also had a special focus on China, the same Bei Ling, as well as the investigative journalist Dai Qing (戴晴), were removed from the list of participants at the request of Chinese authorities. The pair were re-invited after the decision caused a stir, leading the official Chinese delegation to walk out of the event.

The Germans didn’t yield, principles of free speech were upheld, and the Chinese walked out. Their loss. There’s a lesson to be learned from this: Engagement and the promotion of one’s culture is a two-way street. We don’t have to declare defeat on elements of our culture and beliefs that are essential to who we are.

Soldiers are not waste dumps

Using soldiers as garbage dumps for agricultural products will only succeed in alienating an important segment of society that is already doing more than its share of sacrifices for the nation

The nation’s armed forces, which count hundreds of thousands of people in their ranks, represent a sizable constituency in Taiwan, and as such should be called upon to help the nation in whatever way they can in times of need.

Already, many of the men and women who serve in the military put their lives at risk, whether it is during training, in the wake of natural catastrophes, or — and let us hope it never comes to this — in time of war. Far too often their efforts and dedication are taken for granted or made the object of ridicule.

Facing such odds, soldiers’ morale understandably suffers. What’s more, bad press makes the goal of creating a fully professional military even less attainable, as young people would rather turn to the private sector than join an organization that is constantly under fire. A country need not be martial or fascistic to accord its armed forces the respect they deserve. Just like politicians, business owners, nurses, academics or farmers, soldiers and military officers are an integral part of society.

Which brings us to the habit of using soldiers whenever large quantities of agricultural products need to be disposed of or their prices stabilized. In recent years, hundreds of tonnes of oranges and bananas have been purchased by the military and “force-fed” to soldiers amid efforts to help farmers. More recently, it was proposed that the Ministry of National Defense purchase large quantities of pork to serve a similar objective.

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Fear not the cross-strait culture war

Those who argue that Chinese culture poses a fundamental threat to Taiwan’s sense of self fail to fully appreciate the resilience and adaptivity of Taiwanese identity

Much has been made in recent years of an apparent campaign by elements on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to convince Taiwanese that they share a common culture, ethnicity and history with Chinese. This emphasis is without doubt part of the multifaceted effort by Beijing — an effort that also has political, military and economic angles — to unify Taiwan with China. However, culture is the weapon in Beijing’s arsenal that is the least likely to succeed.

A good number of Taiwanese and their supporters recoiled when President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), once he was safely ensconced in office, began waxing lyrical about the “shared ancestry” of Taiwanese and Chinese, or hurt sensitivities when he harped on about a so-called “Chinese culture with Taiwanese characteristics.” Similar apprehensions arose when his administration, and its counterparts in China, began encouraging cooperation in all matters cultural, from the movie industry to linguistics.

Suddenly, Taiwanese culture and identity seemed to be under assault, dwarfed by the weight of 1.3 billion Chinese who, we can only deduce from Beijing’s propagandistic line on such matters, all share a homogenous “Han” culture. Some of the deformities that have arisen from such a stubborn adherence to a cultural “one China” include “Chinese Taipei” and, as one often encounters in the opening paragraph of reporting by (state-controlled) Chinese media, “China’s Taiwan,” as if repeating a lie often enough would somehow transmute that into truth.

[...] But greater cultural contact need not necessarily translate, and oftentimes will not, into the uncritical and total assimilation of foreign ideas — let alone serve as an instrument by which to change a people’s identity.

My op-ed, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.