Stability in Taiwan Strait factor in South China Sea conflict

An oil platform in the South China Sea

The recent stability in the Taiwan Strait is a source of new tensions in the South China Sea, as it has freed up Chinese military assets 

The relative calm in the Taiwan Strait since 2008 is one of the principal factors behind China’s increasingly aggressive stance in the South China Sea, a Vietnamese academic told a conference in Washington on Wednesday. 

The two-day conference, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), was held amid rising tensions in the South China Sea following the announcement by China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) earlier this week that it was offering nine blocks for joint operation with foreign firms in waters that Vietnam claims fall within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), prompting Hanoi to lodge an formal protest. 

Speakers from China, Vietnam and the Philippines — all claimants in the South China Sea disputes — were invited to give presentations on the subject, while academics from the US, Japan and India, which do not have sovereignty claims in the area, provided external rationales for their involvement in conflict resolution. No one from Taiwan, one of the six claimant countries, presented at the conference. 

Full article in the Taipei Times continues here.

The blue-green faultline weakens Taiwan

Pan-green legislators continue to occupy the floor of the Legislative Yuan yesterday

Given the nature of the Chinese threat, political parties in Taiwan should focus their energies on external risks rather than against each other 

Taiwan is one of very few countries about which it can be said that it faces a threat to its survival. Given this, decisionmakers should ensure that resources and energy are properly channeled to meet any challenge head-on.

Unfortunately, that is not always the case. Israel’s situation is analogous to Taiwan’s: Both are threatened by an external enemy bent on denying them the right to exist and which have shown determination to use force to achieve that end. Granted, the analogy only goes this far, as the dynamics of power in the two conflicts differ markedly. In Taiwan’s case, it is the weaker party in the struggle, while Israel in its struggle has the upper hand militarily and is an occupying force, which generates a whole new set of grievances. 

That being said, the threat facing Israel is no less serious and its gravity has served as a rallying force for its people. There are undeniably serious differences of opinion inside Israel about how to deal with the challenges created by the Palestinians’ right to self-determination or attacks against Israelis by groups like Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Israel’s democratic way of life has helped bring those differences into contrast. However, all Israelis, from those who support the use of force to resolve the conflict to those who regard the occupation as the main cause of the conflict, agree on the need to do what is necessary to ensure the survival of their nation. 

This is an example that Taiwanese appear unwilling to follow. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Former MIB spy sentenced for leak; Bergersen out

Former MIB deputy dep't head Pang Ta-wei

While Pang Ta-wei got into trouble for the second time, a former Pentagon analyst jailed in the US for providing secrets to China has been released 

The Taiwan High Court yesterday sentenced a retired military intelligence officer to three years and six months for violations of the National Intelligence Services Act (國家情報工作法).

The court ruled that Pang Ta-wei (龐大為), a former deputy department head at the Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB), had already been convicted for leaking national secrets in 2007 in a book, which reportedly included information about his unit’s espionage activities in China from the early to mid-1990s. Pang had been sentenced to 18 months in prison for leaking classified information pertaining to national security.

In 2009, Pang completed his memoir, titled Intelligence Journal, which was allegedly based on notes he had taken while serving at the bureau, as well as other related documents. After the book, written under a pen name, was put on sale in January 2010 through a publishing house in Hong Kong, Pang was once again accused of leaking national intelligence. 

In its ruling yesterday, the court said it had taken Pang’s health — he is undergoing treatment for chronic myelogenous leukemia — into consideration in sentencing him.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Fast-attack missile boats’ Achilles’ heel?

Hsiung Feng launchers are installed on a frigate

By disabling radar and data links needed to acquire target information, China could blind Taiwan’s fast-attack missile boats and render them practically useless 

The effectiveness of Taiwan’s fast-attack missile boats to counter the Chinese military will largely depend on the vessels’ ability to acquire targeting information, which might not be guaranteed in a full-scale war scenario, a defense expert said recently. 

Unable to compete with the People’s Liberation Army Navy on a tonne-for-tonne basis, the Taiwanese Navy has in recent years embarked on an “asymmetrical” program, developing and fielding fast-attack boats equipped with a variety of surface-to-surface and anti-ship missiles. 

Since 2010, three squadrons, for a total of 31 170-tonne Kuang Hua VI fast-attack missile boats, have entered service in the navy. Each boat is equipped with four Hsiung Feng II (HF-2) anti-ship missiles, which have a range of approximately 150km. Last year, the military also began modifications on some of its 500 tonne Ching Chiang-class patrol boats to outfit them with four Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) ramjet-powered supersonic anti-ship missile launchers. Five Cheng Kung-class frigates have also been outfitted with HF-3s as part of a NT$12 billion (US$406 million) program to arm the navy with 120 HF-3s, a 300km-range missile that since last year has been known as Taiwan’s “carrier killer.” And a new 450-tonne radar-evading fast attack corvette currently under development is expected to be outfitted with eight HF-2 and HF-3 launchers, and possibly the 650km-range HF-2E. 

All those platforms, however, could be rendered into useless hulls if the offshore radars and data links required to launch the missiles are disabled. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Taiwan placing its F-16C/D request in holding pattern

F-16 aircraft in flight

Despite promising momentum on the US side, Taipei appears to have abandoned all efforts to procure the aircraft, defense industry insiders are saying 

Taiwan is committed to a full upgrade for its fleet of 145 F-16A/Bs, but may be hinting at a possible F-35 Joint Strike Fighter request in order to delay its acquisition of 66 F-16C/Ds as it faces budgetary constraints and a difficult political situation domestically.

The majority of the aircraft currently in service in Taiwan’s air force were acquired in the 1980s or early 1990s. With the ageing F-5Es to be decommissioned, and rumours that some Mirage-2000s — whose spare parts are increasingly costly — could suffer a similar fate soon, Taiwan has launched efforts to modernise its fleet through mid-life upgrades of the domestically-produced F-CK-1 Indigenous Defence Fighter (IDF) and US-made F-16A/Bs, along with possible new acquisitions.

A recent report commissioned by Lockheed Martin claimed that without new procurements, the number of serviceable aircraft in Taiwan’s air force would drop by 70 per cent by 2020, and by 50 per cent if new aircraft are acquired.

My article, published in the June issue of Jane’s International Defence Review, continues here (subscription required).

Military holds major tri-service exercise in southern Taiwan

AH-1W helicopters fire on targets in Pingtung yesterday

This was only the second time in four years that the media were invited to attend the Lien Yung exercise
  
The armed forces yesterday held a major live-fire drill in Pingtung County, weeks after the Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) administration was accused of being soft on national defense for not using live ammunition during the Han Kuang series of exercises in April.

The Lien Yung exercise, which Ma attended, was held at the Tri-Service Joint Training Base at Paolishan (保力山) in Henchun (恆春), Pingtung County, the nation’s only base for live-fire exercises of this magnitude. In all, 935 members from the army, air force and navy took part in the drill, which involved F-16A/B aircraft, AH-1W attack helicopters, OH-58D reconnaissance helicopters, CM-11 battle tanks, M109 howitzers and Javelin anti-tank missiles, as well as a variety of grenade launchers and rifles, all aimed at targets on the flank of the mountain. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times after grueling travel in hot and humid Pingtung, continues here.

Democracy is no mere commodity

Taiwanese voters in the Jan. 14 presidential election

Acknowledging that Taiwan is the first Chinese democracy does not mean one agrees that Taiwan is part of China. Those are two different issues 

Some political commentators from the pan-green camp were recently angered by remarks by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), which they interpreted as saying that Taiwan’s democratic way of life was a “Chinese democracy,” arguing instead that it was a “Taiwanese democracy.” 

Many of Ma’s detractors seem to regard the president’s comments on the subject as part of his administration’s attempts to Sinicize Taiwan, to the detriment of its identity as distinct from China. 

While a case can be made about the Ma government’s tendency to overemphasize the Chinese “bloodlines,” “history” and “culture” that are part of the mix of Taiwanese identity, those who see Ma’s efforts as a dangerous attempt at rewriting history should in turn be wary of making claims that depart from reality. Arguing that democracy in Taiwan is “Taiwan’s democracy,” it must be said, does exactly that. 

My op-ed, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

How to alienate an important ally

An F-16A/B takes part in an exercise in Pingtung yesterday

Members of the US Congress who over the years have fought for Taiwan could be reluctant to do so again if Taipei does an about-face on the F-16C/D 

President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) came into office in 2008 on the promise that he would improve relations with the US, the nation’s most important diplomatic ally, a goal he claimed he had attained as he campaigned for a second term. 

Though it denied doing so, Washington in the months leading to the Jan. 14 presidential election acted in a way that supported Ma’s contention, with some officials in US President Barack Obama’s National Security Council sabotaging Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) visit to the US prior to the vote. 

That is not to say that Ma’s relations with Washington were always smooth, especially when it came to the US beef controversy, which led directly to the ouster of Ma’s first National Security Council secretary-general, Su Chi (蘇起). However, it can be said that the relationship has been stable overall, following years of shakier ties under the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). 

All that could be about to change, though, as the Ma administration appears close to committing an about-face that could not but be felt as a transoceanic slap in the face by some of Taiwan’s staunchest supporters in Washington. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

US officials wary of possible Taiwan-China cooperation in South China Sea

Fishing boats navigate the South China Sea

While US defense officials encourage the peaceful development of relations in the Taiwan Strait, in private some fear cooperation could go too far 

Although US defense officials welcome recent efforts to improve relations across the Taiwan Strait, some are starting to show a high degree of concern about possible cooperation between Taiwan and China on South China Sea disputes, Taiwanese academics say. 

At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last weekend, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said Washington strongly supports the efforts that Taiwan and China have made in recent years to improve cross-strait relations. 

While Panetta strongly encouraged further development in that direction, in more quiet settings, US officials are reportedly expressing reservations about possible cooperation between Taiwan and China on military issues, including South China Sea disputes and an eventual mutual-trust mechanism. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Taiwan seeking full US$5.2bn upgrade for F-16s

An F-16A/B in flight at Hsinchu AFB on Wednesday

Taiwan is expected to sign the LOA within 45-60 days. What is not included in this LOA will be part of a second one in two years 

The air force will procure the full US$5.2 billion upgrade package for its fleet of F-16A/B aircraft notified to US Congress in September last year, but will do so in two phases, the Taipei Times has learned. 

This latest twist in the F-16 saga comes after reports in February said that the Executive Yuan had decided it would give the air force only US$3.7 billion to upgrade its 145 F-16A/Bs, forcing the military to trim some of the articles included in the US$5.2 billion package, which includes Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars, electronic warfare suites, air-to-air missiles and, more controversially, a variety of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) kits. 

Air Force Command Headquarters announced early last month that it had received an official answer from the US, which reportedly contained articles that reflected the US$3.7 billion allocated by the Executive Yuan. Taiwan is currently evaluating the contents of the letter and is expected to sign the letter of agreement within 45 to 60 days. 

However, a defense industry source told the Times yesterday that Taiwan would still procure the entire US$5.2 billion upgrade, but would do so in two phases, with the second phase — worth about US$1.5 billion — taking place in two years. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

The stigma that never goes away

Su Tseng-chang takes the helm at the DPP on Wednesday

Taiwanese politicians — and now warheads — are ‘anti China,’ part of a linguistic bias that seeks to negate Taiwan as a legitimate entity in itself 

Taiwan probably has the distinction of being the global leader on the frequency by which it is referred to as being “anti-” something, an underlying bias among journalists and academics that is as unfair to its peaceful constituents as it is to reality. 

For years, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which played an instrumental role in the democratization of the country and which is founded on the principle of self-determination, has been plagued by references, usually in foreign media, as an “anti-China” party. No matter what it does, the DPP is portrayed as a political entity that would will China out of existence if it could. 

In reality, throughout the years and under various leaders, the party has shown itself amenable to exchanges with China and has engaged in dialogue with Chinese officials on a number of occasions, in both above-board and behind-the-scenes settings. Even under former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), whom Beijing reviled as an “extremist” bent on “splitting the motherland,” the DPP made several attempts, especially during its first term, to foster closer relations, so much so that the economic interrelationship in the Taiwan Strait changed dramatically during that period, developments that simply could not have happened had Chen and the DPP been “anti-China.” 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Possible Chinese development of Type 081 LHD causes alarm in Taiwan

Design plans for the 22,000-tonne Type 081 LHD

By as early as 2014, the Chinese navy could have at its disposal a vessel that could dramatically change the face of an amphibious attack on Taiwan 

A 22,000-tonne landing helicopter dock (LHD) under development in China has sparked alarm in defense circles in Taiwan, with some analysts saying the ship could cause a “strategic shift” in the Taiwan Strait. 

The design, first unveiled by state-owned China Shipbuilding Industry Co (CSIC, 中國船舶重工集團公司) — the country’s largest shipbuilding conglomerate — at the Defense and Security 2012 exhibition in Bangkok in early March, is believed to be the Type 081 LHD that defense enthusiasts have been expecting for years. 

According to Jane’s Defence Weekly, CSIC confirmed the existence of a Type 081 program in 2007, but at the time it refused to disclose further details. The design phase of the vessel was reportedly completed in 2006, with engineering design beginning soon afterwards. The 211m long LHD will be capable of carrying an impressive eight helicopters on deck, with hangar space for four more, or for hovercraft. It will also have capacity to accommodate 1,068 marines and will be equipped with phased-array radar, four short-range air-defense launchers and anti-submarine warfare capability. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Russia refuses to sell Su-35, S-400s to China

S-400 TELs at a military parade in Russia

Moscow has often complained about how China reverse-engineers its defense articles to produce cheaper versions that then compete with it on the exports market 

The Taiwanese air force will perhaps sigh in relief at the news that Russia is refusing to sell China Sukhoi Su-35 multirole aircraft — one of the world’s most advanced fighters — and top-of-the-line S-400 air defense systems over fears that Chinese engineers could eventually copy the technology. 

The Russian-language Kommersant business newspaper reported earlier this year that Beijing last year had requested 48 Su-35s, valued at more than US$4 billion, as well as an unspecified number of S-400 systems. 

With Taiwan already playing catch-up in the race for control of airspace in the Taiwan Strait, this development will provide relief, as the introduction of the Su-35 would have added to Taipei’s headaches.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

‘Backdoor’ in made-in-China computer chip threatens US military

No current means exists to protect hardware from viruses

The backdoor access could be turned into an advanced Stuxnet weapon to attack potentially millions of systems 

A computer chip manufactured in China that is used in US military equipment contains a secret “backdoor” that could severely compromise security, a team of scientists from Cambridge University says. 

In a recent report, Sergei Skorobogatov, a senior research associate at the University of Cambridge’s computer laboratory, wrote that his team had developed silicon chip scanning technology that allowed them to investigate claims by various intelligence services worldwide that silicon chips could be infected by malware, such as Stuxnet, that can allow a third party to gain access to or transmit confidential data. 

Unlike software, no means currently exist to protect hardware against viruses or Trojan horses, a critical vulnerability for defense systems that are hardware-reliant. 

For its research, Skorobogatov’s team selected a chip that was manufactured in China and is used by the US military. The chip, which is prevalent in many systems used in weapons, nuclear power plants and public transport, was considered highly secure and used sophisticated encryption standards. After performing advanced code breaking, the team found a backdoor they say had been inserted by the manufacturer. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

New PLA airforce base in Fujian sets sights on East China Sea

A satellite view of the Shuimen air base

The air base in Shuimen is about 70km from Taiwan’s Dongyin Island, where the military has deployed radar and surface-to-air missiles 

More information about a new airbase in China’s Fujian Province emerged over the weekend, with military intelligence sources saying the base appeared to be designed to bolster China’s claim to sovereignty over islets in the East China Sea.

Distances from Shuimen

Military sources said construction at Shuimen air base, located on a hilltop along the coast in Shuimen Township, was nearing completion. Satellite images of the airbase first emerged in 2009, with intelligence sources saying China had cleared a swathe of more than 2km at an altitude of 364m to make way for the airbase, the Chinese-language United Evening News reported over the weekend.

More recent satellite imagery of the area showed J-10 multirole combat aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) deployed at the base, with Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 fighters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) being gradually introduced.
 

Presumably TELs at Shuimen

S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries have also been spotted at the base, the report said. These could be part of the two battalions, or eight batteries, of more advanced S-300PMU1 systems ordered from Russia in 2001, a US$400 million deal that included 32 transporter erector launchers (TEL) and a total of 198 missiles. The missile batteries could also be HQ-9s, a Chinese derivative of the S-300. The base is situated 246km from Taipei and 380km from the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台), over which Taiwan, China and Japan claim sovereignty. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here. My article on the same subject for JDW can be accessed here (subscription required).

Taiwanese air force faces plane shortage by 2020

A F-16A/B from the ROCAF takes off in Taiwan

Taiwan appears to have had a change of mind on the need to acquire new aircraft, a decision that will have serious repercussions on the balance of air power in the Taiwan Strait 

A US congressional report released this week makes it clear that, without the acquisition of new aircraft, the Taiwanese air force risks being a shadow of itself by 2020 and incapable of meeting the challenge it faces in the Taiwan Strait.

The annual report by the Congressional Research Service, titled Taiwan: Major US Arms Sales Since 1990 — which Defense News has called “required reading inside Taiwan defense circles and among US defense officials working with the island’s military” — provides a detailed analysis of US arms sales to Taiwan over more than two decades. 

The section on F-16 jet sales provides the greatest shock. By 2020, it says, the number of fighter aircraft in the air force would drop by 70 percent without the acquisition of new F-16s as it retires near-obsolete F-5s and some ageing Mirage 2000s, whose spare parts are reportedly extremely costly. Even if Taiwan were to acquire the 66 F-16C/Ds it has been requesting since 2006, the total number of aircraft would still have dropped by 50 percent by that time, the report says. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Qualifying China’s military posture

Officers hoist the PRC flag at a military parade

When China’s regional claims encompass pretty much the entire South China Sea, countries with interests in the area can be forgiven for having doubts about what Beijing means by ‘defensive’  

As expected, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense earlier this week reacted with indignation at the contents of the Pentagon’s latest report on the Chinese military, released last week. 

Like in previous years, Chinese officials deplored what they saw as a misrepresentation and unfair depiction of China’s military development, adding that US officials were “deliberately playing up the imbalance” of military power in the Taiwan Strait to justify arms sales to Taiwan. 

At a press conference on Monday, Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng (耿雁生) assured the world that, contrary to what the Pentagon report suggested, the Chinese military is developing “for the exclusive purpose of safeguarding the country’s sovereignty, security and developmental interests,” and that Beijing has “firmly adhered to a peaceful development path and adopted a defense policy that is wholly defensive in nature.” 

There is no denying that China is a rising power and that it should be allowed to develop a military that is commensurate with its economic might and growing role internationally. But what undercuts Geng’s reassurances is the fact that this development is showing signs that it is going well beyond a purely defensive posture, as well as confusion over what China actually means by defensive. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Taiwanese filming Chennault documentary, but ...

A KMT soldier stands guard in front of P-40 aircraft

Academia Historica, the nation’s top historical institution, gave the project to CtiTV, a media arm of the pro-China Want Want China Times group 

Crew from a Taiwanese film company spent hours filming former members of general Claire Lee Chennault’s Flying Tigers and his granddaughter in the US on Tuesday for a documentary commissioned by Academia Historica that could have a strong pro-China flavor. 

Nell Calloway, director of the Chennault Aviation and Military Museum and Chennault’s granddaughter, as well as several local members of the Flying Tigers — the famous air wing created by Chennault during World War II — will feature in the documentary. 

After Japan’s surrender, Chennault, an ally of former president Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石), created the CIA’s clandestine Civil Air Transport (CAT) and Air America, which flew missions into China to drop agents and do reconnaissance against the communists. CAT also provided support for anti-communist forces in northern Burma (now known as Myanmar) and Tibet against Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Chinese Communist Party troops. 

On Tuesday, a group from SKYEYE Film Production spent hours filming in Monroe, Louisiana, for the documentary, which is to be completed by the end of this year. According to the Monroe News Star, the documentary will be used by Academia Historica, which will distribute the film for “educational purposes.” 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here, with more details about the Sino-centric nature of the production company. This article completes an op-ed I published on efforts by China to “rehabilitate” Chennault and other anti-communists.

War of Wits for Taiwan's Air Force

Lockheed Martin's F-35B in action

The F-35 could become a convenient tool to kill the F-16C/D program while maintaining the illusion that Taipei remains committed to acquiring advanced aircraft 

After years of frustrating efforts to acquire 66 F-16C/D aircraft from the United States, it’s now starting to look like Taiwan might finally get what it wants, with the Obama administration promising that it would give “serious consideration” to the matter, while the U.S. House of Representatives last week passed an amendment to the U.S. 2013 National Defense Authorization Act ordering the sale.

So at long last, the endeavors of two administrations could be close to fruition, and Taiwan might finally be within reach of getting both the upgrades and procuring the new F-16C/Ds.

But there’s a catch: some officials in Taiwan are now saying that Taipei can’t afford the two programs, and that the upgrades would be sufficient – at least for the time being. What they are saying is that rather than spend an estimated $10 billion on F-16C/Ds, whose qualitative edge over the upgraded F-16A/Bs they consider to be marginal, Taipei had better conserve that money for the future acquisition of aircraft with radar-evasive and vertical takeoff/landing capabilities. In other words, the F-35B.

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here.

Chinese Type 056 missile boat to launch within days

A Type 056 under construction

Defense analysts believe that the new missile boats will be perfectly suited to meet the challenges that China is facing in its South China Sea disputes 

A new type of Chinese missile corvette, the principal role for which might be to project power in the South China Sea, could be launched “within days,” military watchers said on the weekend. 

Talk of a Type 056 class first emerged in late 2010. So far, little technical information has been released about the corvettes, which are believed to lie in the 1,400-to-1,700-tonne category. 

Two shipyards, Hudong Shipyard in Shanghai and Huangpu Shipyard in Guangzhou, are engaged in what appears to be a race to complete the vessels. Officials at Hudong reportedly announced late last week that the first Type 056 corvette could be launched “within days,” with possible commissioning at the end of this year. A total of four hulls are known to be under construction, with completion expected to follow soon after the delivery of the lead ship. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.