A Bump in the Road for Taiwan and Japan, but Little More

Taiwanese fishing vessels head for the Diaoyutais

Historical ties with Japan and disinterest among Taiwanese in the Diaoyutai issue will make it difficult for Ma to take action that can truly harm the relationship 

Although its voice is often ignored in the escalating spat over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, Taiwan reacted with uncharacteristic bombast to the Japanese government’s purchase of three islets in the disputed island chain in September. The response reached unprecedented levels with a high-profile “sea protest” involving dozens of Taiwanese fishing vessels, accompanied by several Coast Guard Administration ships, during which CGA officers engaged in a water cannon battle with their Japanese counterparts. The sequence of events, combined with the hardened rhetoric in Taipei, has raised fears of souring relations between Taiwan and Japan, and attracted speculation about possible co-operation between Taipei and Beijing in “defending” territory they both claim as their own. 

A closer look at Taiwan’s idiosyncratic role in the triumvirate, however, shows that, rather than clearly taking sides, Taipei is playing a difficult, and perhaps perilous, balancing act. 

My article, published in the current issue of the Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief, continues here. The full issue can be accessed here.

Court cuts fine in follow-up to Lafayette frigate scandal

A Lafayette- (or Kang Ding) class frigate, hull 1202

An agreement stipulated that Taiwan would receive a 15 percent discount if French agents were caught paying commissions to middlemen

Less than two years after winning a landmark 630 million euro (US$875 million) lawsuit against a French defense contractor over the scandal-plagued sale of Lafayette-class frigates to Taiwan in the 1990s, an arbitration court last week shot down Taipei’s hopes for a second win in a related case, citing a lack of evidence. 

In its follow-up claim, Taipei had filed claims of 45.5 million euros, including interests and prosecution fees, against DCNS, the maker of the frigates, over a 1996 spares supply contract for the six multi-role stealth frigates. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

DPP makes wise choice in Joseph Wu, Washington office

The well-spoken Joseph Wu has a heavy task ahead of him

The challenges will be formidable, but it’s hard to imagine a man better placed to meet them 

The announcement on Monday that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had tapped former representative to the US Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) to reopen and head the party’s office in Washington is an important development for the future of Taiwan’s relations with its principal ally.

Although, as some critics have already pointed out, it is unusual for the opposition party of a democratic ally to have an office in the US capital, Taiwan’s idiosyncratic — and at times precarious — position makes this essential. The disparity in power and resources between the DPP and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) alone is such that any counterweight to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) must be physically present in Washington to be heard. 

Since the DPP closed its Washington office in 2000 when it entered the Presidential Office, the party has relied on a one-man liaison office to negotiate the vagaries of the always complex relationship between Taiwan, the US and China. That man, Mike Fonte, has done a wonderful job and earned the respect of many officials, but the immensity of the task, along with Taiwan’s uncertain future as President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) accelerates the pace of cross-strait exchanges, requires more resources. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

US-Japan to revise defense guidelines

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta addresses soldiers

The planned revisions to longstanding defense guidelines leave no doubt as to the identity of the principal antagonist 

Much has been said in recent months about the so-called U.S. “pivot” to Asia, a rebalancing that, though often discussed, remains surprisingly hard to define. However, one key component of Washington’s strategy seems to be taking shape and could gain sharper focus in coming weeks: a new, expanded and more flexible role for Japan’s military. 

With U.S. and Japanese armed forces currently conducting a major joint exercise across Japan and in the Pacific, the two governments announced this weekend that they had agreed to consider revisions to the defense cooperation guidelines that, since 1978, have served as a basis for how the two countries address defense matters of common interest. 

Since the guidelines were adopted, Japan’s security situation — in fact the entire region — has undergone a dramatic transformation. 

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here.

Taiwan test-fires variant of HF-3 ‘carrier killer’ missile

CSIST's HF-3 on display at a military parade

Reports claim the variant of the Hsiung Feng III has a range of 400km and can reach a maximum speed of Mach 3.0 

Taiwan’s top military research institute last month test-fired a powerful new anti-ship missile that could send a strong signal to China as it launches its first aircraft carrier, a reports said yesterday.

According to the Chinese-language United Daily News, the Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology completed a series of tests of the missile, which has been referred to as a variant of the Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) anti-ship missile. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Taiwan confident US military ties are strong

Deputy Minister of National Defense Andrew Yang

Taiwan’s deputy minister of national defense sees no reason to fear US abandonment of Taiwan and points to sustained cooperation 

Taiwan is very much on the US’ radar and remains an important component of Washington’s strategy in the West Pacific, a top defense official said in an interview published yesterday. 

Deputy Minister of National Defense Andrew Yang (楊念祖), who recently returned from one of his frequent visits to the US, told Defense News in an interview conducted late last month that while Taiwan does not figure prominently in the US rebalance — commonly referred to as the “pivot” — to Asia, Taipei and Washington have “widely” cooperated over the past two years or so. 

My writeup of Defense News’ interview with Andrew Yang, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Japan, US launch ‘Keen Sword’ exercises amid regional tensions

US and Japanese vessels take part in Keen Sword

China said it was paying close attention to the exercises and said it ‘sternly opposes’ moves by Japan to bring outsiders to the region

Approximately 47,000 Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and US Forces on 5 November launched joint-bilateral exercises in a time of heightened tensions due to an ongoing territorial dispute between Japan and China in the East China Sea.

Keen Sword 2013, which runs through 16 November, is part of a series of regular field training exercises meant to enable US and JSDF armed forces to hone co-ordination procedures and improve operational interoperability to ensure that Japan can meet various security contingencies in the Asia-Pacific region.

My article, published today in Jane’s International Defence Review, continues here (subscription required).

Not a good year for Taiwan’s economy

Taipei 101 as seen from near Taipei International Airport

Prospects for Taiwan’s economy in 2013 have been the object of concern among investors and financial watchers 

As economists predicted late last year, 2012 has been a tough year for Asian exporters, and Taiwan, its economy increasingly dependent on the Chinese engine, has been no exception to the downturn.

From forecasts in mid-2011 of 4.51 percent GDP growth for 2012, government indicators in August predicted annual growth would settle at just 1.66 percent (the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research has since cut its forecast to a mere 1.16 percent). It was the lowest in a long series of downward revisions through the year — primarily the result of a slowing Chinese economy and the struggles of Eurozone economies. Taiwan’s economy shrank 0.18 percent year-on-year in the three months to June, the first quarterly contraction since the third quarter of 2009 — mostly the result of poor exports performance.

Despite the difficulties, the Ma administration’s plan to revive the economy does not seem to imagine anything beyond further expansion of economic ties with China.

My article, published in the October/November 2012 issue of Asia Today International, can be accessed here (subscription required).

Blue and green skies above Taiwan

A statue on the site of the Jingmei detention center

The DPP must apply the lessons learned from an unrivaled master of Taiwanese politics, former president Lee Teng-hui 

Former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) came in for some heavy criticism during her trip to the US over remarks she made that Taiwanese should give more “space” to the idea that the Republic of China (ROC) is Taiwan, and Taiwan the ROC. However, if the past is any indication, she might be onto something. 

For good reasons, the initial reaction among many Taiwanese and human rights defenders to equating their homeland with the ROC — a regime that was forced upon them after the conclusion of World War II — will be to bristle. Such reactions might even be more pronounced when a Taiwanese, who once headed the DPP and ran for high office, utters such words. Indeed Tsai became the object of rather scathing personal attacks, with some accusing her of giving up on Taiwanese independence and siding with President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). 

However, anyone who knows Tsai will agree that selling out is the last thing on her mind. Rather, her comments, which it must be said she has made before, reflect an understanding of the parameters within which the DPP must operate if it is ever to have any hope of returning to power. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Clarifications on Taiwan’s early-warning radar: Will Taiwan share with the US?

Major-General Liu Shi-lay

One cannot accuse Taiwan’s military of leaking like a sieve and complain that it isn’t being completely transparent when describing sensitive programs in unclassified settings

Critics of the Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) administration may have believed they had found new ammunition when on Monday Lieutenant-General Liu Shi-lay (劉溪烈) told the legislature that the Ministry of National Defense would not “offer” to the US data collected by the early-warning system that is being built on Leshan (樂山), Hsinchu County, after it comes online later this year. In their view, this could be final proof that the administration has decided to abandon Taiwan’s longstanding defense relationship with the US and to side with Beijing instead.

However, appearances notwithstanding, the situation might not be as troubling as it would seem — in fact, there’s probably very little to worry about, at least when it comes to the US$1 billion-plus EWR being built by US-based Raytheon Corp. The reason is simple: US-Taiwan defense ties have long been characterized by ambiguity. In other words, the scope of cooperation between the two armed forces is a secret matter, with Taipei and Washington often publicly downplaying the extent of the relationship. This is done for both political reasons, as Beijing tends to be sensitive to any sign of defense cooperation between the two countries, and to ensure that some secrets remain, well, secret. Viewed from this perspective, it makes perfect sense for a Taiwanese military officer not to confirm whether Taipei will share signals collected by the EWR with the US, and if so, under what circumstances, and to what extent. The US itself may not want Taiwan to provide such confirmation.

One should nevertheless add that not even the closest allies share everything with one another — in fact, even agencies within the same government often keep secrets from one another, as I discovered during my time as an intelligence officer.

One thing is pretty clear: The US would not have agreed to install what has been described as the world’s most powerful EWR on the face of the planet without the expectation of something in return. Furthermore, military-to-military ties between Taiwan and the US remain healthy, with training and exchange programs occurring on a continual basis. As such, even if political signaling from the Presidential Office or in the Legislative Yuan gives impressions to the contrary, military cooperation between the two countries’ armed forces goes on.

Another reason why Liu said what he did has to do with the need to protect sensitive collection sources. After all, the LY session was not classified, so there was every expectation that whatever was said during the meeting would be made public. And it was. This is normal practice, especially when it comes to electronic means of intelligence collection. Back when I served as an IO, I often had to prepare classified briefings for other government agencies, both domestic and foreign, as well as federal courts for the renewal of affidavits and warrants. Practitioners of intelligence will agree that what, above all, needs to be protected are sources, including means of collection. When writing documents for judges who had a security clearance and had been “indoctrinated,” or other agencies, the names of sources were never disclosed, and the same applied to electronic devices (e.g., wiretaps) and allied agencies. The same holds for military and exchanges of information, especially when that information includes every air-breathing target down to the size of a golf ball operating 3,000km inside China. One cannot accuse Taiwan’s military of leaking like a sieve and simultaneously complain that it isn’t being completely transparent when describing sensitive programs in a public session at the LY.

Lastly, while the US military would undoubtedly benefit from whatever data came out of the EWR, the Taiwanese military does not need that information to be passed on to US networks for it to be useful. The EWR is part of Taiwan’s Surveillance Radar Program architecture, which provides Taiwan’s air defense systems with tracking and cueing information on incoming objects, from ballistic and cruise missiles to aircraft. Simply out, there is no need for radar data to be shared with the US for Taiwan’s PAC-3s and Tien Kung IIs to do what they’re supposed to do. And under circumstances such as a Chinese attack, there’s no way the Taiwanese military would not share its intelligence with the US, including that collected by the EWR at Leshan. (A slightly different version of this op-ed was published in the Taipei Times on Nov. 10.)

Japan developing ballistic missile-tracking drone

Visitors at a rocket launch site in North Korea

Targeting ballistic missiles during the boost phase has several advantages, and unmanned aerial vehicles could be well-suited to accomplish that task 

When back in April North Korea launched what the international community claimed was a ballistic missile, the country that had the most to fear from the launch — Japan — failed to track it, raising anxiety in Tokyo that its defenses against a missile attack by Pyongyang were insufficient

Ironically, the reason why Japan’s ground radars and Aegis destroyers, backed by U.S. early-warning surveillance satellites, were unable to track the launch is because the launch was a failure: the object, which Pyongyang all along maintained was an orbiter, never reached high enough an altitude to allow for its detection.

What came as an embarrassing failure for the North Korean regime served as a reminder to Tokyo that more was needed to ensure it had the ability to detect low-altitude objects as well as missile launches in their early phase. To address this shortcoming, the Japanese Defense Ministry has reportedly embarked on a multibillion-Yen program to develop unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with ultrasensitive infrared sensors to track ballistic (and possibly cruise) missiles as well as other low-altitude objects. 

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here.

PLA reshuffle signals factional balancing, continuity

With an average age of above 60 and all with about 40 years’ experience in the PLA, the new appointments reflect a desire for continuity 

The Chinese Ministry of Defense’s announcement last week of a series of top personnel reshuffles left out some of the more extreme elements within the armed forces, showed interest in continuity, and reflected a delicate balancing act between the Chinese Communist Party’s (CPC) two main factions.

My article, published today in Jane’s Defence Weekly, continues here (subscription required).

China’s J-31 Stealth Aircraft Takes Flight

The J-31, right, on its maiden flight, with J-11B escort

The aircraft performed a high-speed taxi run before flying for about 10 minutes 

Well, the Chinese aviation industry sure isn’t wasting any time: From the first glimpse of the tarp-covered fuselage being hauled in the first official pictures released by Shenyang Aircraft Corp (SAC) in September, China’s second fifth-generation stealth aircraft, the J-31, has now taken its maiden flight. 

While defense analysts have been busy fretting over Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corp’s (CAC) J-20, first unveiled in January 2011, it looks like SAC was not dwindling its thumbs but instead was hard at work developing a second low-signature aircraft. Since the unveiling in September, defense watchers had been holding their breath in anticipation of what would come next. 

SAC didn’t make them wait for long, with in-flight images of the J-31, which previously had been designated J-21, popping up on defense Internet sites on October 31. Bearing the tail designation “31001,” the aircraft, accompanied by two Shenyang J-11Bs, reportedly conducted a high-speed taxi run, followed by a 10-minute flight with its landing gear in the lowered position. 

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here.

Promoting gay rights helps Taiwan

Participants at the LGBT parade on Saturday

There are no better placed people to combat discrimination than those who have been the victims of discrimination for decades 

On Saturday afternoon, a multicolored assemblage of about 50,000 people from 20 countries gathered in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei to support calls for the government to recognize — and just as importantly, legalize — same-sex unions. 

For a relatively conservative Asian society, the turnout for the LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender) Pride parade, which was celebrating its first decade, was more than respectable. The fact that the parade took part in an open-minded, orderly and welcoming atmosphere was just as important. There were none of the hateful protesters and religious zealots who all too often turn up at similar parades in the US, or in Russia, where non-heterosexuals are often physically assaulted by extremists.

Well-known artists also turned up

Passers-by looked on with curiosity, ice cream vendors had a field day, petitions were signed and participants, from the scantily clad to the gaudily plumed, had a blast having their pictures taken while supporting an important social cause.

That such progressiveness could take root within a traditional society is testament to the social progress that has occurred in Taiwan. This is an example to other societies, including that across the Taiwan Strait, where difference is treated as a malady rather than something to celebrate. 

That is not to say that discrimination does not occur in Taiwan. Despite the openness that characterized Saturday’s event, homosexuals continue to live under the shadow of intolerance, both in society at large and, even more devastatingly, within their own families. This often forces them to live a lie or to clip their wings, as it were. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Planned bonus cut angers military officers, threatens morale

Taiwanese soldiers stand at attention

‘Our family’s rightfully deserved pension bonuses have been confiscated by the government ... her father can no longer afford to hand out red envelopes or buy them new clothes on Lunar New Year’ 

Plans announced last week by the Executive Yuan to slash the year-end bonuses for retired civil servants have caused consternation among both serving and retired military personnel, hurting morale and potentially undermining plans to create an all-volunteer force by 2015.

Following an expedited review of the annual year-end bonus for retired civil servants, military personnel and public school teachers, Premier Sean Chen announced a provisional plan to cut the budget for the bonus from NT$19.2 billion (US$656 million) under the current regime to about NT$1 billion. 

Under the new regime, which could come into force starting in February next year, retired public servants in only two categories — those receiving a monthly pension of less than NT$20,000 and the families of military personnel who died or were injured in the line of duty — would be entitled to the bonus, or about 42,000 people, from 432,000 at present. 

Although most people agree that the current system is unsustainable given the treasury’s financial difficulties, divisions remain on the breadth and scope of the proposed cuts. 

My analysis, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Taiwan’s China Spy Problem: The Chang Chih-hsin Case

Retired navy commander Chang Chih-hsin

Even with warming relations across the Taiwan Strait, Chinese intelligence collection against the island it regards as its own remains as aggressive as ever 

As relations between Taipei and Beijing continue to improve following the re-election of Taiwan’s President, Ma Ying-jeou, to a second term in January, China’s intelligence collection against the island it claims as its own remains as aggressive as ever, with major spy cases grabbing the headlines about once every six months.

It’s been less than two years since Taiwan was hit by the worst spying case in half a century, in which Army general Lo Hsien-che was arrested for passing classified military information to Chinese intelligence officers since 2004, in return for payment. In July of the same year, Lo was sentenced to life in prison, but it was hard to contain the damage, especially as doubts remained over how much access he had to the nation’s Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems, which Taiwan has been modernizing with U.S. assistance for well over a decade [...]

Now Taiwan’s military is once again on damage control mode, with reports emerging on October 29 that commander Chang Chih-hsin, a retired naval officer, had been arrested on suspicion that he had collected classified information on behalf of China.

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here.

Taiwanese pilots, crew to begin training on AH-64 'Echo' Apache in November

An AH-64E Apache helicopter in flight

The Apache 'Delta' Block III had enough significant upgrades to warrant a new designation. Taiwan received its first one of 30 in May 

The Taiwanese army earlier this year took delivery of the first of 30 Apache combat helicopters from the US and next month pilots and crew will begin training on the platform, which recently received a new designation from the US Army. 

As a result of the significant upgrades made to the AH-64D Block III Apache during its development, the US Army recently decided to re-designate it the E model. To date, 25 AH-64Es have been delivered to the US Army and Taiwan received its first delivery during a low-key handover ceremony at Boeing Co’s Mesa facilities in Arizona in May. 

According to Aviation Week, training for Taiwanese pilots and crews is expected to begin next month.

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

Taiwanese jailed in US for illegal exports to Iran

Susan Yeh, aka Susan Yip

Among the items she and two others procured or tried to procure for Iran were underwater locator beacons and military-grade crystal oscillators 

A US federal court on Wednesday sentenced a 35-year-old Taiwanese woman to two years in a federal prison for helping procure sensitive technology for Iran in defiance of a trade embargo against the country. 

On July 20, Susan Yeh pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to violate the Iranian Transaction Regulations (ITR) by using her companies in Taiwan and Hong Kong to illegally broker the export of thousands of electronic parts to Iran, the target of US sanctions over its sponsorship of terrorism and a suspected nuclear weapons program. 

Yeh, who also goes by the name Susan Yip, has been in custody in the US since May after she entered the country on a US visa. 

A seven-count indictment unveiled in a federal court in San Antonio, Texas, on Wednesday said that between Oct. 9, 2007, and June 15 last year, Yeh, working with Mehrdad “Frank” Foomanie of Iran and Merdad Ansari of the United Arab Emirates, obtained or attempted to obtain more than 105,000 parts valued at more than US$2.6 million from companies worldwide, involving more than 1,250 transactions. Of those, 599 were transactions with 63 US companies, from which the trio obtained or attempted to obtain parts without notifying them that the end user was Iran, the US Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Texas said in a press release. 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

US political ad uses wrong ‘Taiwan’ flag

A still from Doheny's TV ad

Congressional candidate Matt Doheny’s new ad snipes at Congressman Bill Owens over a visit to Taiwan last year, but used the Chinese flag as a backdrop 

Taiwan has become the object of a US congressional battle, with a Republican candidate accusing his Democrat opponent in a new TV ad of violating house rules by having lobbyists pay for a US$22,000 trip to Taiwan last year — except there’s a problem: the ad shows the Chinese flag as a backdrop. 

The ad, paid for by Republican congressional candidate Matt Doheny, has led to some head scratching in the US and accusations that the “inflammatory” error could mislead the US public. At one point, the ad shows a composite image of New York Congressman Bill Owens on the left-hand side of the screen, holding a blown-up picture of a first-class airline ticket. President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) stands in mid-screen, also holding the airline ticket. In the background is a supine white island in the shape of Taiwan, with the word “Taiwan” inscribed on it in black, while the right-hand side of the screen displays two yellow stars on a red background, in what is clearly the flag of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). 

My article, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.

A chance to learn from others

John Baird, PM Harper and Premier Wen Jiabao

An Canada-China investment agreement that is close to being implemented could provide important lessons to Taiwan, provided Taipei is willing to listen 

The deal, signed on Sept. 9 and quietly tabled late last month, is to be ratified, behind closed doors, within just 21 sitting days and without any public hearings. Legislators on the trade committee were briefed for just one hour by government officials last week, with no independent witnesses present. To any Taiwanese who has tracked the style of negotiations between President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration and China in the past four years, the situation described above will sound eerily familiar. 

However, the deal in question is not the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed in 2010 after six months of negotiations, or the investment protection agreement inked on Aug. 9. It is the Foreign Investment and Protection Agreement (FIPA) between China and Canada, which critics say requires public scrutiny and risks putting Canada at a disadvantage. 

The Conservative government of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, however, refuses to hold public hearings and seems intent on forging ahead with an agreement that even its supporters admit contains flaws. 

My unsigned editorial, published today in the Taipei Times, continues here.