Saturday, May 14, 2016

After British Queen’s ‘Rude Xi’ Remarks, New Tape of Ma-Xi Conversation Emerges

The following is a leaked excerpt from a dinner conversation held between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore on 7 November 2015. The authenticity of the information obtained has yet to be ascertained. (Warning: this is satire.)

Ma:     I apologize in advance for the giggling. Alcohol does that to me.
Xi:       My sources tell me you giggle less when you’ve had a few.
Ma:     Your intelligence is very accurate, Chairman.
Xi:       I got this from Facebook. In fact it was a post from your wife, last week I believe.
Ma:     You have Facebook? I thought…
Xi:       Who do you think’s been teaching that Suckerman Chinese?
Ma:     I believe it’s Zuckerman, Mr. Xi.
Xi:       Never heard of him. Anyway, let’s make that our little secret, shall we? My wife cannot know, or she will most assuredly kill me in my sleep.
Ma:     Smother you with a pillow? That’s always been my greatest fear.
Xi:       Impossible. We sleep in different rooms.
Ma:     Why is that?
Xi:       We’ve been watching House of Cards. Seems to be the cool thing to do.
Ma:     H’mmm. House of Cards. Sounds like a good title for my presidency…
Xi:       [Sneezes violently].
Ma:     Mr. Xi, let us move on to pithier matters, shall we? I am getting a lot of pressure regarding the missiles. I was wondering if…
Xi:       What missiles?
Ma:     The missiles you’re aiming at us.
Xi:       They’re not aimed at you. They’re solely for cloud-seeding purposes.
Ma:     I understand, Mr. pres—
Xi:       Watch it Mr. Ma!
Ma:     My apologies, Mr. Xi. Still, can’t something be done about them?
Xi:       How many of those are there again?
Ma:     Sixteen-hundred’s the number, I am told.
Xi:       Ah yes, such a large number. I am always amused by all those 
           Western “experts” who seem to think that we could fire all those 
           missiles at once. My dinner is delivered late half the time, Mr. Ma. 
           Do they really think we can pull off something like this? Still, it’s 
           useful. The notion scares people, I guess.
Ma:     Very much so indeed.
Xi:       I’ll tell you what I’m going to do. I’ll remove ten of them, but you must promise me you won’t tell anyone.
Ma:     Thank you. That’s 1,590, I feel much safer now.
Xi:       Now, in return for that favor, Mr. Ma…
Ma:     Yes?
Xi:       Let’s talk about those scammers.
Ma:     Ah yes, such a great movie that was!
Xi:       Movie? I didn’t say anything about a movie.
Ma:     Is this not the movie produced by that American film company that sold its soul to the mighty Renminbi?
Xi:       I’m not talking about movies, Mr. Ma. The real thing. Scammers.
Ma:     Scanners? Surely you’re mistaken. We stopped making those a long time ago. In fact, I’m pretty sure your side makes them now.
Xi:       Scammers, Mr. Ma. Scammers.
Ma:     So what about those souls?
Xi:       Beg your pardon?
Ma:     Did they sell theirs—the Americans?
Xi:       Oh I have no doubt, Mr. Ma.
Ma:     All right. As long as the planes they’re put on have some cartoon on the fuselage, you know. You can’t use Hello Kitty—we’ve got those already.
Xi:       What about Disney characters? Mickey Mouse would work?
Ma:     You got copyright for those?
Xi:       [Chuckles]
Ma:     Perfect. Well, that’s all taken care of, then.
Xi:       Indeed. Of course you’re aware we’ll have to put hoods on their heads, you know, for dramatic purposes…
Ma:     The Americans?
Xi:       No, the scammers.
Ma:     Oh?
Xi:       But I promise you that Mickey Mouse will prove most comforting to our police officers. After all, it’s not every day that we kidnap nationals from other countries.
Ma:     [Giggles]. Sorry, it must be the wine. Where is this delicious wine from, anyway?
Xi:       France, I am told.
Ma:     You must mean China.
Xi:       Well, the label says France…
Ma:     Yes, the label [winks].
Xi:       Cheers.
Ma:     I wish they would make songs about me too.
Xi:       Oh please. They’re they very reason I’m cracking down on free expression across China. If it doesn’t stop I’ll have to imprison every opera singer and everyone with a Casio under his bed. It’s abominable.
Ma:     It’s better than having shoes thrown at you.
Xi:       I’ll take a shoe any day. At least the pain goes away pretty quickly.
Ma:     You tell that to Commissioner Liu. He’s been complaining of headaches ever since that little devil Wei-ting scored a direct hit.
Xi:       Who?
Ma:     Never mind. You’d never have heard of them anyway.
Xi:       Oh I’ve heard of Liu. A delightful critter. But Wei-ting?
Ma:     A devil, truly. He’s given me heartburn.
Xi:       I’ll have the MSS look into it.
Ma:     You’re telling me you’ve no idea who the young man is?
Xi:       I have no idea what’s going on in that countr—
Ma:     Careful, Mr. Xi.
Xi:       Right, right. In that province of yours.
Ma:     I feel we’ve made such progress, Mr. Xi. Such statesmanship [raises glass]. To everlasting friendship! [Xi sneezes loudly again].

Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Taiwan 'Erased’ From UN Tourism Map

A top three destination for Chinese tourists in 2014 did not make the cut on a UN map 

Something’s wrong with the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) map of the top 10 destinations for Chinese tourists in 2014, which was recently reproduced on the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) new China Power Project website. Despite being the third-largest recipient of Chinese tourists that year, with 3.98 million arrivals, Taiwan is not mentioned. 

My article, publishes today in The News Lens International, continues here (photo: J. Michael Cole).

Monday, May 02, 2016

Convergence or Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Illusion of Peace? to be released in September 2016

The English-language version of my book 《島嶼無戰事:不願面對的和平假象》will be published by Routledge in September 2016!

Years of rapprochement between Taiwan and China had convinced many that the Taiwan issue had been resolved, and that it was only a matter of time before the two former opponents would reunite under One China. But a re-energized civil society, motivated by civic nationalism and a desire to defend Taiwan’s liberal-democratic way of life, has dashed such hopes and contributed to the defeat of the China-friendly Kuomintang in the 2016 presidential elections. 

This book draws on years of on-the-ground research and reporting to shed light on the consolidation of identity in Taiwan that will make peaceful unification with China a near impossibility. It traces the causes and evolution of Taiwan’s new form of nationalism, which exploded in the form of the Sunflower Movement in 2014, and analyses how recent developments in China and Hong Kong under "one country, two systems" have reinforced a desire among the Taiwanese to maintain their distinct identity and the sovereignty of their nation. It also explores the instruments at China’s disposal, from soft power to coercion, as well as the limits of its influence, as it attempts to prevent a permanent break-up between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Finally, the book argues against abandonment and suggests that international support for Taiwan as it negotiates its complex relationship with China is not only morally right but also conducive to regional and global stability. 

Acting as both a sequel and a rebuttal to earlier publications on Taiwan-China relations, this book takes an intimate and anthropological look at Taiwan’s youth and civil society, and applies this to traditional analyses of cross-strait politics. It will appeal to students and scholars of Taiwanese Politics, Chinese Politics, International Relations and Sociology. 

Paperback: 9781138696242 pub: 2016-09-14 
Hardback: 9781138696235 pub: 2016-09-14

A Personal Journey in Books

Books have been a true constant in my life, a safe, unfailing refuge from the demands and frustrations of everyday life. I find myself returning to it in times of uncertainty, when life throws me a curveball or does not yield, if life can be said to yield at all, the hoped-for dividends. Literature in particular has been like oxygen for me, and my relationship with it was in my mind this past weekend, prompted, I suspect, by my efforts to dig out one specific book from the 30 crates or so which, having run out of shelve space in my home, occupy one-fourth of my study. As I sought that particular book I felt I was journeying back in time; the idiosyncratic scents, above all, teasing the parts of my brain that are closely associated with memory.

My lifelong encounter with books has its own narrative, a series of impressions anchored in time, like biographical red flags. It goes something like this.

Oddly, I have very few memories of the books that I read in my childhood — not the French-language ones, that is. Sure there was some science fiction (the Anticipation series which a cousin collected) and whatever it is that we were force-fed in primary school, but none of these can be said to have affected me in any meaningful way. I do remember repeatedly flipping through the pages of a French translation of Solzhenitsin’s The Gulag Archipelago in my parents’ collection, but its sheer size was too daunting and I never plunged in.

For reasons that I still cannot fully understand, my emotional connection with books, and with literature in particular, was sparked when I started reading English. I had been reading H. P. Lovecraft in French translation for a while, but only when I acquired the English originals, the Del Rey paperbacks with the macabre covers by Michael Whelan, did I feel like I was plunging into a forbidden universe. It was only then that I got the frisson. I’ve long outgrown Lovecraft, but the smell of the ink is something that I still associate with late evenings in bed, turning the page to “The Horror at Red Hook” or “The Case of Charles Dexter Ward.”

From that same period, I associate the Dragonlance series with long summer afternoons, Stephen King’s The Stand with efforts to read in class and not get caught, and J. R. R. Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings with Christmas, upstairs at my uncle’s house, unwilling to leave behind the hobbits and other creatures which inhabited that expansive universe.

My first contact with “real” literature occurred during college — at St. Lawrence College in Quebec City, to which I had applied, as a francophone, to improve my English. It was tough going at first; not so much the reading but the writing, until one professor warned me that if my writing did not show improvements fast I might have to leave the college. Needless to say, this was a warning that I took seriously, and I did what was necessary to avoid expulsion.

But I digress. College was my first brush with Shakespeare. Richard III, King Lear and Macbeth in particular I found enthralling, but admittedly I felt lost at first, only getting part of what was going on. I did fall in love with iambic pentameter, though, and for years afterwards would try to mimic the metering. What else do I associate with that period? Thoroughly enjoying my first Graham Greene (A Gun for Sale), Hemingway’s Old Man and the Sea and Steinbeck’s The Pearl, and strangely having to read Flaubert’s Madame Bovary in English translation in a class run by a professor I did not particularly like but who, a quarter of a century later, I still associate with leather skirts and high boots. I still fondly remember Lorne Coughlin, who would walk into the classroom with his inevitable “good morning to you too.” It was Coughlin who first introduced me to another C — Joseph Conrad. He’d often mention Conrad even though he wasn’t on the reading list. So I jumped in on my own with Heart of Darkness. Coughlin seemed mightily pleased when he saw me reading it, as if he’d scored some secret victory. We also did Beowulf, which I remember reading from that unwieldy bible-papered Norton anthology, and Sir Gawain and the Green Knight. The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock and Murder in the Cathedral by T. S. Eliot, poetry by Wallace Stevens (“The Snow Man”) were also highlights during that period. There were several others, but this is what had the greatest effect on my young mind, at least that can remember. 

There was, at the time, a particular sense of magic associated with books that with age has dissipated somewhat. I still get a thrill when I first open a book (which I find much more enjoyable than finishing one), but it’s not the same. Age, I assume, does that.

My move to Montreal in the summer of 1994 is also a period that I associate with an intense engagement with literature. It brings to mind Steinbeck’s East of Eden and The Grapes of Wrath in my bedroom, writing down every word I didn’t understand and memorizing the definitions; Michael Moorcock on the bed in the guest room at my mother’s house when I visited on weekends; long magical summer afternoons in the park near the Olympic Stadium reading Conrad’s Nostromo and Lord Jim, and Conrad again in winter with Under Western Eyes and The Secret Agent; winter is also Dostoyevsky’s Crime and Punishment; Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities in my bed, one of the rare books that actually made me cry; Mann’s short stories; Ralph Ellison’s Invisible Man with late-night reading disrupted by a phone call from the police informing me that the front window of the store where I worked part time as an undergraduate had been smashed by a brick; Rushdie’s Midnight’s Children, which we were not required to read in whole but that I did; Nabokov’s Lolita, which totally fascinated me; Joyce’s Ulysses, which I felt once in a lifetime was more than enough; Jane Austen bores me; Achebe’s Things Fall Apart; Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty Four, which I’d reread years later and think of as a completely different novel; Kazuo Ishiguro’s The Remains of the Day moves me, and I skip several classes to read The Unconsoled at the university library; Mann’s The Magic Mountain I associate with several things: an internship at CBC Newsworld in Calgary, breathlessly awaiting 5pm whereupon I’d head for the park and continue reading, ducks in the river, a performance of Shakespeare’s A Midsummer Night’s Dream on the green grass, and several typos in the Modern Library edition. It was on that same trip that I bought my first of many biographies of Conrad. Returning from that trip I stopped by the bookstore where I worked before heading home, as I’d received a large shipment of books from the Everyman’s Library — pretty much the entire collection of Dickens. Mann’s Doctor Faustus brings to mind summer, coffee, sitting by the balcony and Gustav Mahler while my girlfriend was on a trip with a cousin. Oscar Wilde (not Dorian Gray, which I had read years earlier) is lying on the carpeted floor of my second apartment in Montreal, the ceiling fan circling above my head, before the furniture had arrived. Montreal is James JonesThe Thin Red Line and From Here to Eternity, which when I finally saw a copy at the bookstore (reprinted to coincide with the release of Terrence Malick’s film version of Thin Red Lineliterally made me jump in place, to my mother’s (and another customer’s) amusement. Montreal is also Michael Crichton, devouring his thrillers outside the classroom, just before class, while my classmates talked among themselves. For quite a while I wanted to be the next Crichton and began reading every copy of Scientific American and Discover magazine for the next science-based novel plot.

My Signet Classics paperback copy of Hamlet gets devoured, literally, by a friend’s dog. Golding’s The Lord of the Flies is an Irish pub and a dark-haired man, much better looking than me and slightly older, competing for my girlfriend’s attention late one evening, when he asked me why I would ever bother reading such a book. How could I not, was my indignant response. Eco’s The Name of the Rose in paperback, Foucault’s Pendulum, which I enjoyed even more, in hardback. Naipaul at a coffee shop near McGill University, long afternoons and evenings; Nabokov again late at night at a different coffee shop, literally stunned by the brilliance of his prose; Thomas Harris with summertime (Red Dragon with a splitting headache). I read almost everything by Polish journalist Ryszard Kapuscinski during that period; Imperium and Shah of Shahs are standouts; HessSteppenwolf Gunter GrassThe Tin Drum, accompanied by Gorecki’s Symphony No. 3.

Edward Said comes in at this point; so does Carl Sagan, whose ability to articulate science for a general audience had, I believe, a strong impact on my own writing; his novel Contact makes me think of the Montreal subway and wormholes. Oliver Sacks also makes his appearance; Awakenings moves me deeply.

Graham Greene and John Le Carré came later, after I had moved to Ottawa in 2003. Greene I associate with heartbreak after a failed attempt to convince a Japanese woman to come live with me in Canada; on the way back from Tokyo I decided to spend a week in Vancouver, where I devoured many of Green’s novels; Our Man in Havana stands out from that period and is, in my opinion, one of the funniest novels ever written. More Greene (Comedians, Honorary Consul, Quiet American) after I return to Ottawa, sitting outside at a coffee shop near the Byward Market. Mishima, Murakami and Tanizaki also enter into my life during that period as I tried to make sense of the Japanese mind and perhaps discover the key to A—’s heart (no success there; she was already married); Murakami’s South of the Border, West of the Sun on the plane back from Tokyo; Vargas Llosa’s The Feast of the Goat with too much Cuban rum and Elliot Goldenthal’s Frida soundtrack; several failed attempts to read the Peruvian author’s The War of the End of the World, which I’d only complete years later in Taipei during a cold January spell and boy was that a great novel; Robert Stone’s Damascus Gate is sitting on the floor of my first apartment in Ottawa before my furniture came in; the other novels come later, with A Flag for Sunrise and Dog Soldiers coming much later; I meet Stephanie due to Nabokov’s Pale Fire; Yu Hua’s To Live is in a car between Ottawa and Toronto. Robert Littell’s The Company and William Shawcross’ The Shah’s Last Ride are intimately associated with the thirteen-month recruiting with CSIS. As my brief career in the intelligence world was coming to a painful close it’s Koestler’s Darkness at Noon, Huxley’s Brave New World, and a lot of Le Carré (the Karla trilogy, The Night Manager, and The Little Drummer Girl, which I finished on the beach in Cuba, along with Greene’s The Power and the Glory). Robert Fisk’s Pity the Nation, about the war in Lebanon, has a marked impact on me; I give a copy as a present to the intelligence officer who accompanied me during my field training in Toronto; I also give a copy of Greene’s The Heart of the Matter, which I associate with heartbreak in New York City, to another friend at the intelligence agency; New York also brings back memories of Ivan Klima (Love and Garbage). 

My work in intelligence makes it nearly impossible for me to take spy novels seriously; only Greene, Len Deighton, Eric Ambler, Furst (on his best days) and Le Carré succeed in making me suspend disbelief; the others I give up after a few chapters.

Taiwan is Mishima, more Le Carré (earlier works during my first months on the island; A Most Wanted Man I associate with our decision not to attend the Dec. 31 fireworks at Taipei 101 and instead a very cold night at home under the blankets), some Greene, Waugh (Black Mischief and Scoop had me laughing to tears), Rushdie’s Shalimar the Clown (second attempt after a first one, back in Ottawa, had brought back painful memories due to its associations with terrorism) and Shame, Camus, J. G. Ballard, Anthony Burgess (at long last!), DeLillo (slightly overrated in my opinion), Victor Serge, Ismail Kadaré (in French), Akutagawa during a particularly violent afternoon thunderstorm, Paul Bowles; finally a successful attempt to finish Vasily Grossman’s monumental Life and Fate, also finally reading Naipaul’s excellent A House for Mr. Biswas; Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s The General and His Labyrinth is, to my memory, sitting on a bench in Daan Park.

There’s a lot more, for sure, and I have barely mentioned all the non-fiction that I read. But this gives an idea of the invisible thread that runs through those years joining books with places, people, coffee, and life experiences. I often imagine myself being asked the typical question, If you were sent to a deserted island and were only allowed five books, which ones would you bring along? My initial response would be, Only five? Ok, if I must…

1. Thomas Mann, The Magic Mountain
2. Joseph Conrad, Nostromo
3. Mario Vargas Llosa, The War of the End of the World
4. Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov
5. Vasily Grossman, Life and Fate


I “pray” that I will never be asked to make such a choice and that my collection of 3,000 books or so will always follow me, wherever I end up.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Getting It Right Before 520: The Chang Ching-sen Case

Civil society must be part of the Tsai Ing-wen administration’s coalition. Alienating it at the outset is not a recommendable policy 

It’s about three weeks before the May 20 inauguration, and already the Tsai Ing-wen administration is in hot water. 

Sadly the wound is a self-inflicted one, what with Chang Ching-sen, a minister without portfolio to-be for the incoming administration, making inappropriate remarks this week about the Wenlin Yuan urban renewal project in Taipei’s Shilin District, a controversy that sparked rounds of protests by civic groups a few years ago. This is an early test for the Tsai administration. Here’s why it must handle it accordingly, and the damage that this could cause if it doesn’t do so could have far-reaching consequences. 

My article, published today in The News Lens International, continues here.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

China Spews Vitriol Over ‘Taiwan Night’ in Ottawa

For 20 years Taiwan’s representative office to Canada has held its gala, described as a ‘big draw’ for Canadian MPs. But this year China cried foul 

It’s not been a particularly good past couple of weeks in cross-strait relations, what with China’s “abduction” of 45 Taiwanese, elbowing out of Taiwan from a high-level OECD meeting in Brussels, and questions on whether Beijing will pressure the WHO and ICAO to block Taipei’s efforts to join the organizations as an observer. And now we’re learning that the Chinese embassy in Ottawa has blasted Canadian MPs and Cabinet officials for attending Taiwan Night 2016, an event hosted by the Taipei Economic and Culture Office (TECO) in Canada. 

Described as an evening of food, drinks, and cultural performances, the April 13 dinner reception at the Fairmont Chateau Laurier in downtown Ottawa was attended by several serving and retired Canadian politicians. According to the Hill Times, Chinese officials were “angered” by speeches given by Veterans Affairs Minister Kent Hehr and Public Services and Procurement Minister Judy Foote and infuriated when veteran Liberal Party MPs Hedy Fry and Wayne Easter referred to reality by calling Taiwan a country. Conservative MP Jason Kenney, a former minister of defense and immigration, described Taiwan as “the one-word rebuttal to the notion that Chinese culture is not compatible with democracy.” 

My article, published today in Thinking Taiwan, continues here (photo: Epoch Times).

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Kenyan Extraditions Raise Questions on Stability of China-Taiwan Relations

Yes, Taiwan must do more to combat Internet scammers. But by overreaching, Beijing has turned this into a political issue

Last week’s controversy over Kenya’s extradition of 45 Taiwanese nationals to China, likely at Beijing’s request, has pointed to souring relations across the Taiwan Strait just a month before the inauguration of a new president in Taipei. Although some have interpreted the incident as a warning directed at the incoming Tsai Ing-wen, whose party opposes unification with China, Beijing’s actions likely resulted from other, though no less troubling, dynamics.

The outrage in Taiwan, which sparked a rare moment of unity in the island nation’s deeply divided political scene, stemmed from Nairobi’s decision to deport the suspects to China rather than Taiwan, even after the Kenyan High Court had cleared them of involvement in telecommunications fraud and given them three weeks to leave the country. Protests by Taiwanese officials, who quickly described the extradition as an act of “illegal abduction,” were to no avail.

My article, published today in the International Peace Institute’s Global Observatory, continues here.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

The Fallacy of Yang Hengjun’s ‘Third Option’ for Unification

Sample bias undermines a Chinese author's argument that a third option exists for China to achieve the great dream of national unification 

In a recent post (original in Chinese here), Yang Hengjun (楊恆均), a former official in China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs-turned “independent scholar, novelist, and blogger,” presents three scenarios through which unification between Taiwan and China could occur. The first two — “natural unification” following a convergence of social institutions and unification by force triggered by a declaration of independence — were suggestions by netizens after Yang invited his followers on Weibo to discuss the matter. Yang, however, argues that a third option exists to achieve what he calls the “great cause of national unification”: factionalism in Taiwan. Here’s why Yang is probably wrong.  

My latest article, published today in The News Lens International, continues here.

China Forces Taiwan Out of High-Level OECD Meeting in Belgium

Beijing appears to be turning the screws on Taiwan 

In another sign of Beijing’s hardening stance on Taiwan, government representatives from Taiwan on April 18 were asked to leave a high-level meeting at an international steel symposium held by the OECD Steel Committee and the Belgian government after organizers were reportedly pressured by China. 

Giving in to pressure from the Chinese side, which claimed that the Taiwanese delegates were not “senior enough,” Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Kris Peeters weighed in and requested the members of the Taiwanese delegation leave the afternoon High-Level Symposium on Excess Capacity, according to reports. Despite its protests, the Taiwanese delegation was expelled, prompting Taiwan’s representative office in Brussels to issue a protest with the Belgian government. Taipei has since protested with the OECD and to Beijing via the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), the agency in charge of relations with China. 

My article, published today in Thinking Taiwan, continues here (photo: Reuters).

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Can China get away with abducting people overseas?

With the abduction of 45 Taiwanese nationals, China is sending an ominous signal to Taipei and the international community 

The ongoing crisis over the deportation by Kenyan authorities of 45 Taiwanese nationals to China has sparked consternation in Taipei and accusations of international kidnapping worldwide. 

Besides the fact that the individuals were cleared of all crimes by a Kenyan court, their extradition to China, ostensibly due to pressure from Chinese officials, raises essential questions about the future implications of the "one China" policy in a time of greater Chinese assertiveness. 

My article, published today on CNN, continues here.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

China ‘Abducts’ Taiwanese in Kenya

The forced deportation of Taiwanese citizens to China sparks fears about extraterritoriality 

Taiwanese of all stripes were aghast this week after eight Taiwanese nationals were among a group of Chinese citizens forced onto a plane to China last Friday. It is not known why Chinese authorities sought to have the Taiwanese extradited to China; the eight had been cleared of charges of telecommunications fraud by a court in in Kenya. The incident, which Taipei has described as “illegal abduction” and “uncivilized action,” raises serious questions about Chinese extraterritoriality and the “one China” policy. 

The eight nationals in question were among a total of 37 individuals — 23 of them Taiwanese — who were acquitted of fraud in an April 5 Kenya High Court decision and were given 21 days to leave Kenya. One of the eight is reportedly a Taiwanese-American. The remaining 15 Taiwanese were put on a plane to China on Tuesday, also in defiance of the court order. Chinese officials in Kenya reportedly pressured Kenyan authorities to send the Taiwanese nationals to China. 

My article, published today in The Diplomat, continues here.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Monday Horror Renews Debate on (and Thirst for) Capital Punishment

The satisfaction of bloody retribution notwithstanding, capital punishment is the lazy way out, as it doesn’t require us to address the real issues 

Once again the crowds were calling for blood on Monday after an individual decapitated a four-year-old girl with a meat cleaver in Neihu, Taipei. The random act of incomprehensible violence has re-energized those — a majority here — who support capital punishment and could turn into a challenge for the incoming Tsai administration that is far less amenable to maintaining the death penalty. Although anger is perfectly understandable under such circumstances, Taiwanese society cannot afford to let hot emotions dictate how it deals with such matters; cool, analytical minds must prevail in such trying times. 

The truth of the matter is that capital punishment doesn’t work, at least not if it is regarded as a means to deter heinous crimes. Individuals who butcher toddlers in cold blood in front of their mothers do not operate under the rational, cost-versus-benefit analysis that governs the rest of us. The morals (variations of “thou shalt not kill” that exist across civilizations) and instinct for self-preservation that make killing another human being so abhorrent to ordinary people do not register with psychopaths who either do not comprehend the consequences of their acts or simply do not care. With them, fear of retribution doesn’t act as a check on their actions. 

My article, published today in Thinking Taiwan, continues here.

Monday, March 28, 2016

With Party Chair Election, KMT Takes One Step Forward, Two Steps Backwards

Hung’s election is the worst possible outcome for Taiwan, as it puts the KMT’s formidable assets at the disposal of politicians who should have bowed out a long time ago 

As expected, Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) was elected chairperson of the struggling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) by a comfortable margin on Saturday night, ending more than 100 years of male dominance at the helm of a party that suffered a major setback in the presidential and legislative elections in January. While the rise of a female politician within the KMT is in step with prevailing attitudes in Taiwan today (she also ran against Wu Poh-hsiung in 2007), Hung’s ascension represents a shift toward a more conservative stance at the party at a time when social forces are calling for rejuvenation. We take a quick look at the implications for the KMT and the nation’s politics. 

Although polls had long indicated that she was likely to prevail against her three opponents (including another woman), Hung’s victory on Saturday was an impressive comeback by a politician who, back in October last year, had been ignominiously dropped as the KMT’s presidential candidate. In the months prior to her demise, Hung’s out-of-step policies and pro-Beijing stance had fueled widespread discontent within the KMT, leading to expulsions and walkouts by party stalwarts and the threat of collapse months before the Jan. 16 elections. 

My article, published today in Thinking Taiwan, continues here.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

China Faces Not One But Two Forces for Independence in Taiwan

Beijing does not only have to contend with traditional 'taidu,' but 'huadu' as well, two forces that, when joined, play a key role in ensuring Taiwan's resilience 

With the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) set to assume office in Taiwan less than two months from now, the Chinese commentariat has shifted into high gear with warnings about Beijing’s “red lines” and the sundry ills that could befall Taiwan should incoming president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) cross any of them. One recurrent red line takes aim at “Taiwan independence,” a concept that is anathema to Beijing. But China has a much bigger problem on its hands, as there is not one but rather two independence movements in Taiwan. 

Sometimes overlapping and sometimes clashing, these two movements are united in their opposition to Taiwan or the Republic of China (ROC), as it is officially known, becoming part of the People’s Republic of China. And taken together, these two groups account of the majority of the people in Taiwan regardless of their voting preferences. 

My article, published today in the China Policy Institute blog, continues here.

Friday, March 18, 2016

Yes, China Has Re-established Ties With The Gambia. Now Calm Down

As a post-modern state, Taiwan should not worry too much about its official diplomatic allies, many of which are micro-states. It must instead focus on substance with countries of influence 

The rumors, which had been circulating for a while, were confirmed early in the evening of March 17. China was resuming diplomatic ties with The Gambia. The African country had been in political limbo since November 2013, when it had severed ties with Taipei only to be spurned by Beijing, ostensibly because the Chinese government did not want to shatter the “diplomatic truce” it had struck with President Ma Ying-jeou. Now the question on everybody’s lips is whether Beijing’s apparent change of heart constitutes a “warning” to Tsai Ing-wen, who will assume the presidency on May 20, and signals an end to the informal arrangement whereby the two sides of the Taiwan Strait wouldn’t “steal” diplomatic allies from each other. The short answer is maybe, but even if that were the case, there is no reason for Taiwan to panic. 

My op-ed, published today in The News Lens International, continues here (photo: Xinhua).

Thursday, March 17, 2016

家園、價值與民主:論台灣認同的興起

作為對照及定義自身認同的對象,台灣人在今天的中國身上看見的,正是他們所不願成為的模樣

這個趨勢幾年前就開始了,不論台北和北京的兩個政府是怎樣同步勸誘台灣人回心轉意,大造宣傳還是施以甜頭,都無法阻擋:越來越多台灣人認同自己是台灣人而不是中國人。有幾項人口統計因素對今日台灣人自我認同的穩定成長有所影響,但有一項因素似乎特別催化了整個進程,那就是中國本身。

回顧 1990 年代中期,當時在台灣還只有 44% 的人自認為台灣人,還有超過 30% 的人認為自己是中國人。到了今天,根據《聯合報》的一項民意調查(註1),認定自己就是台灣人而不是其他人的比率達到了 73% ,創下這家親藍營媒體調查以來的新高。自認為就是中國人而不是其他人的比率則下降到 11% 。其他為時多年的調查(註2)也追蹤到類似的進展。

教育在這樣的轉變中無疑發揮了一些作用,尤其是在李登輝政權後期以及陳水扁執政八年之中。可是,如果國家機制(例如教育)足以影響甚至形塑自我認同,那麼我們自然會預期馬英九執政八年以來,中國認同的情感必定有所增長。然而中國認同不但未見增長,台灣人的自我認同更在馬英九任內深化了,這意味著自我認同的產生多半獨立於國家主動培養特定認同的舉動之外,至少在國家的舉動違背社會自發趨勢時是這樣。

有一項或許最為人所知的因素,是世代與人口結構的轉變。隨著時光流逝,由於出生在中國大陸或身為中國移民直系後裔而對中國懷有特殊情感的人數逐漸減少,取而代之的則是生長在台灣的幾代人。因此,一個人的自我認同是從他認定什麼是「家園」形塑而成的,與族群身分並不相干。這可以部分解釋在同一份《聯合報》民調之中,為何 20 到 29 歲這一年齡層的人自認為台灣人的比例高達 85% 。

同樣重要的則是人們成長於其中的社會型態,以及這一社會型態如何與界定另一群他者的行為準則形成對比,特別在後者宣稱前者是自身一部分的情況下。在此尤須指出,20 到 29 歲年齡層的作答者們所知的唯一一種政治體制即是自由民主制度,這與身為台灣人的意義何在是不可分割的。對這些青年而言,如今仍存續在中國的那種專制獨裁只能被看作是外在生成的,但在過去幾代親身體驗戒嚴專制的台灣人來說就並非如此。而對於前幾個世代的台灣人,專制獨裁則是與中國直接相關的,因為那樣一種體制是從中國發源,而後以中國國民黨的形貌強加於台灣社會。因此,那種至今仍在中國運行,在許多方面都延續著長年慣習的政治體制,在他們看來同樣是「異己的」,充斥著各種負面意涵的。只有極少數人對台灣的戒嚴威權時代還戀戀不捨。實際上,就連一度成為國民黨總統候選人,卻在選前最後一刻被撤換的親北京人士洪秀柱,她的死忠支持者們也堅決認定「我們」中華民國和「他們」中華人民共和國不同(註3)。我問他們差別在哪裡,而他們幾乎每一個人都指出價值觀的差異,以及各自政治體制本質的不同。

還有一個更晚近的因素進一步加深了兩個社會的對比,而自我認同多半是將自我與「他者」對比之下產生的:那是中國共產黨說明自己在 1989 年天安門屠殺,以及蘇聯解體之後至今仍能屹立不搖的新說法。中共越來越訴諸於民族主義,訴諸於昔日創傷恥辱與今後榮光的敘事,同時把自己抬舉成了中華民族復興不可或缺的衛道士。根據西東大學(Seton Hall University)汪錚教授的研究,前國家主席江澤民是這一轉向的設計師(註4),他用愛國主義和民族主義替代了共產主義與社會主義,成為中國的新一套意識型態。

台灣與中國敘事之間的對比再強烈不過了,從雙方在第二次世界大戰之前和戰爭期間與日本往來經驗的顯著差異開始,到歷史創傷(「百年國恥」相對於二二八屠殺)都不一樣。說到對未來的展望,中華民族復興敘事則是以文明思維放眼全世界,而這樣的野心對於完全甘願於扮演小型或中等強國的台灣人並沒有多大吸引力。

中國官方敘事在現任國家主席習近平領導下展現對外領土野心、尚武象徵及偏執仇外的走向,也更加凸顯了中國和台灣兩個社會的根本差異。再沒有什麼比最近幾個月來圍繞著「習大大」而生的領袖崇拜更能概括雙方差異的了(註5),這種現象在中國是從毛澤東時代以來僅見,而在當代或許只有鄰近的北韓(朝鮮)差可比擬。

這看來似乎瑣屑,卻非同小可。在習近平被拱上神壇的背後,包藏着一套強調獨裁強人領袖不可或缺的國家敘事。用這種敬拜對照台灣人如何對待他們平凡的總統:台灣的總統並不被看作神人,而是經常被公然嘲弄、丑化,甚至像馬英九好幾次親身遭遇的,成了丟鞋的靶子。

就一切「贏得台灣人心」,並營造台灣人可能支持與中國統一條件的努力來說,北京(更明確地說,就是習近平主席本人)最大的敵人是自己。這倒不是因為中國領導人繼續堅信著經濟決定論的空想,而是互相對反的歷史敘事,加上我們最近在中國所見的過度領袖崇拜與國族野心,在在證實了這兩個社會是由互不相容的價值與行為界定的。於是,作為對照及定義自身認同的對象,台灣人在今天的中國身上看見的,正是他們所不願成為的模樣。

(寇謐將,英文想想論壇總編輯,諾丁罕大學中國政策研究所非常駐資深研究員。)

中譯:William Tsai
Original article: Home, values and democracy: Explaining the rise in Taiwanese identification, China Policy Institute blog, March 16, 2016